Related papers: Extreme Value Estimation for Discretely Sampled Co…
Maximum likelihood estimations for the parameters of extreme value distributions are discussed in this paper using fixed point iteration. The commonly used numerical approach for addressing this problem is the Newton-Raphson approach which…
Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…
Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…
In multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT), the focus is on analysis outside of the observable sampling zone, which implies that the region of interest is associated to high risk levels. This work provides tools to include directional…
Extreme value applications commonly employ regression techniques to capture cross-sectional heterogeneity or time-variation in the data. Estimation of the parameters of an extreme value regression model is notoriously challenging due to the…
In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…
Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…
An algorithm for non-stationary spatial modelling using multiple secondary variables is developed. It combines Geostatistics with Quantile Random Forests to give a new interpolation and stochastic simulation algorithm. This paper introduces…
Instrumental variable methods are often used for parameter estimation in the presence of confounding. They can also be applied in stochastic processes. Instrumental variable analysis exploits moment equations to obtain estimators for causal…
We introduce a new variational estimator for the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process with points in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space and observed within a bounded region. The variational estimator applies in a…
The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…
As a useful and elegant tool of extreme value theory, the study of point processes on a metric space is important and necessary for the analyses of heavy-tailed functional data. This paper focuses on the definition and properties of such…
We discuss how maximum entropy methods may be applied to the reconstruction of Markov processes underlying empirical time series and compare this approach to usual frequency sampling. It is shown that, at least in low dimension, there…
Extreme value analysis in the presence of censoring is receiving much attention as it has applications in many disciplines, including survival and reliability studies. Estimation of extreme value index (EVI) is of primary importance as it…
Computational multi-scale methods capitalize on a large time-scale separation to efficiently simulate slow dynamics over long time intervals. For stochastic systems, one often aims at resolving the statistics of the slowest dynamics. This…
In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…
When methods of moments are used for identification of power spectral densities, a model is matched to estimated second order statistics such as, e.g., covariance estimates. If the estimates are good there is an infinite family of power…
Let $\boldsymbol{X}$ be a $d$-dimensional random array on $[n]$ whose entries take values in a finite set $\mathcal{X}$, that is, $\boldsymbol{X}=\langle X_s:s\in \binom{[n]}{d}\rangle$ is an $\mathcal{X}$-valued stochastic process indexed…
We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…
Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…