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This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-03 Jakub Michańków

I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-09 James Rice

Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Nastaran Dabiran , Brandon Robinson , Rimple Sandhu , Mohammad Khalil , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

A common method in training neural networks is to initialize all the weights to be independent Gaussian vectors. We observe that by instead initializing the weights into independent pairs, where each pair consists of two identical Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Alexander Munteanu , Simon Omlor , Zhao Song , David P. Woodruff

This work presents a novel methodology for analysis and control of nonlinear fluid systems using neural networks. The approach is demonstrated on four different study cases being the Lorenz system, a modified version of the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-08-28 Tarcísio Déda , William Wolf , Scott Dawson

A framework based on generalized hierarchical random graphs (GHRGs) for the detection of change points in the structure of temporal networks has recently been developed by Peel and Clauset [1]. We build on this methodology and extend it to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Simon De Ridder , Benjamin Vandermarliere , Jan Ryckebusch

Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-26 C. Gary Mena , Arno De Caigny , Kristof Coussement , Koen W. De Bock , Stefan Lessmann

In this paper, we are concerned with the generalization performance of non-parametric estimation for pairwise learning. Most of the existing work requires the hypothesis space to be convex or a VC-class, and the loss to be convex. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Junyu Zhou , Shuo Huang , Han Feng , Puyu Wang , Ding-Xuan Zhou

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-10-21 Andrew Gordon Wilson , David A. Knowles , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a Laplace approximation that creates a stochastic unit from any smooth monotonic activation function, using only Gaussian noise. This paper investigates the application of this stochastic approximation in training a family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-25 Siamak Ravanbakhsh , Barnabas Poczos , Jeff Schneider , Dale Schuurmans , Russell Greiner

The great success of neural networks in recognizing hidden patterns and correlations in complex data lies in the way they take advantage of the large number of parameters and nonlinear single-unit activation, jointly. Restricted Boltzmann…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2026-05-20 Giovanni di Sarra , Yasser Roudi

The problem of probabilistic verification of a neural network investigates the probability of satisfying the safe constraints in the output space when the input is given by a probability distribution. It is significant to answer this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Jingyang Li , Xin Chen , Hongfei Fu , Guoqiang Li

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

Stochasticity and limited precision of synaptic weights in neural network models are key aspects of both biological and hardware modeling of learning processes. Here we show that a neural network model with stochastic binary weights…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2018-07-04 Carlo Baldassi , Federica Gerace , Hilbert J. Kappen , Carlo Lucibello , Luca Saglietti , Enzo Tartaglione , Riccardo Zecchina

We consider neural networks with a single hidden layer and non-decreasing homogeneous activa-tion functions like the rectified linear units. By letting the number of hidden units grow unbounded and using classical non-Euclidean…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Francis Bach

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Rafael Oliveira

We propose a method for efficiently incorporating constraints into a stochastic gradient Langevin framework for the training of deep neural networks. Constraints allow direct control of the parameter space of the model. Appropriately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Benedict Leimkuhler , Timothée Pouchon , Tiffany Vlaar , Amos Storkey

Classification of sequence data is the topic of interest for dynamic Bayesian models and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependencies between class variables, the latter have a capability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-12 Son N. Tran , Srikanth Cherla , Artur Garcez , Tillman Weyde

We consider the problem of learning a high-dimensional graphical model in which certain hub nodes are highly-connected to many other nodes. Many authors have studied the use of an l1 penalty in order to learn a sparse graph in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-12 Kean Ming Tan , Palma London , Karthik Mohan , Su-In Lee , Maryam Fazel , Daniela Witten

Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are two well known tools for predicting time series. Even though these solutions were developed independently in distinct communities, they share some similarities when…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-18 François Desbouvries , Yohan Petetin , Achille Salaün