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Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-15 Ferenc Huszár , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Mostafa Shams Esfand Abadi , Kaushik Ghosh

With the rapid advancement of information technology and data collection systems, large-scale spatial panel data presents new methodological and computational challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic spatial panel quantile model that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-10 Tomohiro Ando , Jushan Bai , Kunpeng Li , Yong Song

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-19 Soudeep Deb

This paper considers the problem of comparing two processes with panel data. A nonparametric test is proposed for detecting a monotone change in the link between the two process distributions. The test statistic is of CUSUM type, based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-04 Denys Pommeret , Mohamed Boutahar , Badih Ghattas

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Saku Suorsa , Aki Vehtari

A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-31 Ayan Acharya , Joydeep Ghosh , Mingyuan Zhou

Models with intractable normalizing functions arise frequently in statistics. Common examples of such models include exponential random graph models for social networks and Markov point processes for ecology and disease modeling. Inference…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

We consider nonparametric inference for event time distributions based on current status data. We show that in this scenario conventional mixture priors, including the popular Dirichlet process mixture prior, lead to biologically…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giorgio Paulon , Peter Müller , Victor G. Sal Y Rosas

The development of statistical approaches for the joint modelling of the temporal changes of imaging, biochemical, and clinical biomarkers is of paramount importance for improving the understanding of neurodegenerative disorders, and for…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-16 Marco Lorenzi , Maurizio Filippone , Daniel C. Alexander , Sebastien Ourselin

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-03 Christos Merkatas , Konstantinos Kaloudis , Spyridon J. Hatjispyros

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Amin Wu

Statistical modeling of point patterns is an important and common problem in several areas. The Poisson process is the most common process used for this purpose, in particular, its generalization that considers the intensity function to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-26 Flavio B. Gonçalves , Livia M. Dutra , Roger W. C. Silva

We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Xubo Yue , Raed Kontar

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count…