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We consider sums of $n$ i.i.d. random variables with tails close to $\exp\{-x^\beta\}$ for some $\beta>1$. Asymptotics developed by Rootz\'en (1987) and Balkema, Kl\"uppelberg & Resnick (1993) are discussed from the point of view of tails…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-13 Søren Asmussen , Enkelejd Hashorva , Patrick J. Laub , Thomas Taimre

In the paper, we investigate the asymptotic behaviors of the randomly weighted sums with upper tail asymptotically independent increments under new conditions without requiring moment assumptions on random weights.An application of the…

In this paper, we provide a review on the kernel method, which is one of the options for characterizing so-called exact tail asymptotic properties in stationary probabilities of two-dimensional random walks, discrete or continuous (or…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-29 Yiqiang Q. Zhao

This work investigates the tail behavior of solutions to the affine stochastic fixed-point equation of the form $X\stackrel{d}{=}AX+B$, where $X$ and $(A,B)$ are independent. Focusing on the light-tail regime, following [Burdzy et al.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Julia Le Bihan , Bartosz Kołodziejek

For many optimization algorithms the time-to-solution depends not only on the problem size but also on the specific problem instance and may vary by many orders of magnitude. It is then necessary to investigate the full distribution and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-12-08 Damian S. Steiger , Troels F. Rønnow , Matthias Troyer

Suppose that $X$ is a bounded-degree polynomial with nonnegative coefficients on the $p$-biased discrete hypercube. Our main result gives sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper tail probability of $X$ whenever an associated extremal…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

In this paper, we study critical and subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes, $\alpha \in (0, 2)$. We obtain the exact asymptotic behaviors of the tails of the maximal positions of all subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Haojie Hou , Yiyang Jiang , Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Zhangting Chen , Bingjie Wang , Dongya Cheng

In this paper we show under weak assumptions that for $R\stackrel{d}{=}1+M_1+M_1M_2+\ldots$, where $P(M\in[0,1])=1$ and $M_i$ are independent copies of $M$, we have $\ln P(R>x)\sim C\, x\ln P(M>1-\frac1x)$ as $x\to\infty$. The constant $C$…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-29 Bartosz Kolodziejek

We consider a fluid queue fed by multiple On-Off flows with heavy-tailed (regularly varying) On periods. Under fairly mild assumptions, we prove that the workload distribution is asymptotically equivalent to that in a reduced system. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Bert Zwart , Sem Borst , Michel Mandjes

We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Martin Bladt , Laurits Glargaard , Theodor Henningsen

Consider a heavy-tailed branching process (denoted by $Z_{n}$) in random environments, under the condition which infers that $\mathbb{E}\log m(\xi_{0})=\infty$. We show that (1) there exists no proper $c_{n}$ such that $\{Z_{n}/c_{n}\}$ has…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 Wenming Hong , Xiaoyue Zhang

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

Given $d \ge 1$, let $(A_i)_{i\ge 1}$ be a sequence of random $d\times d$ real matrices and $Q$ be a random vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We consider fixed points of multivariate smoothing transforms, i.e. random variables $X\in \mathbb{R}^d$…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Dariusz Buraczewski , Sebastian Mentemeier

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Fumiya Akashi , Konstantinos Fokianos , Junichi Hirukawa

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Xiangqian Sun , Xing Yan , Qi Wu

We study subexponential tail asymptotics for the distribution of the maximum $M_t:=\sup_{u\in[0,t]}X_u$ of a process $X_t$ with negative drift for the entire range of $t>0$. We consider compound renewal processes with linear drift and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Dmitry Korshunov

We consider a Markov modulated fluid network with a finite number of stations. We are interested in the tail asymptotics behavior of the stationary distribution of its buffer content process. Using two different approaches, we derive upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Masakiyo Miyazawa

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong
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