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Hidden Markov chains are widely applied statistical models of stochastic processes, from fundamental physics and chemistry to finance, health, and artificial intelligence. The hidden Markov processes they generate are notoriously…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…
Fluctuation theorems have elevated the second law of thermodynamics to a statistical realm by establishing a connection between time-forward and time-reversal probabilities, providing invaluable insight into nonequilibrium dynamics. While…
We study the large deviations of Markov chains under the sole assumption that the state space is discrete. In particular, we do not require any of the usual irreducibility and exponential tightness assumptions. Using subadditive arguments,…
For a positive self-similar Markov process, X, we construct a local time for the random set, $\Theta$, of times where the process reaches its past supremum. Using this local time we describe an exit system for the excursions of X out of its…
Small nonequelibrium systems driven by an external periodic protocol can be described by Markov processes with time-periodic transition rates. In general, current fluctuations in such small systems are large and may play a crucial role. We…
Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…
We study a discrete stochastic model of a molecular motor. This discrete model can be viewed as a \emph{minimal} ratchet model. We extend our previous work on this model, by further investigating the constraints imposed by the Fluctuation…
Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…
In the paper we consider some piecewise deterministic Markov process whose continuous component evolves according to semiflows, which are switched at the jump times of a Poisson process. The associated Markov chain describes the states of…
Fluctuation theorems are key to understanding both fundamental and applied aspects of non-equilibrium thermodynamics of small systems. We study the non-Markovian entropy production fluctuation theorem for the diffusion process of charged…
In probability theory, equalities are much less than inequalities. In this paper, we find a series of equalities which characterize the symmetry of the forming times of a family of similar cycles for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov…
We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday return are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process and the…
A Markov process fluctuating away from its typical behavior can be represented in the long-time limit by another Markov process, called the effective or driven process, having the same stationary states as the original process conditioned…
We are interested in the rate of convergence of a subordinate Markov process to its invariant measure. Given a subordinator and the corresponding Bernstein function (Laplace exponent) we characterize the convergence rate of the subordinate…
The Integral Fluctuation Theorem for entropy production (IFT) is among the few equalities that are known to be valid for physical systems arbitrarily driven far from equilibrium. Microscopically, it can be understood as an inherent symmetry…
We introduce a new model for describing the fluctuations of a tick-by-tick single asset price. Our model is based on Markov renewal processes. We consider a point process associated to the timestamps of the price jumps, and marks associated…
Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…
We show for Markov diffusion processes that the quadratic entropic bound, recently derived for the rate functions of nonequilibrium currents, can be seen as being produced by an effective process that creates current fluctuations in a…