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We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

Fluctuations in small biological systems can be crucial for their function. Large-deviation theory characterizes such rare events from the perspective of stochastic processes. In most cases it is very difficult to directly determine the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-03 Artur Wachtel

We consider discrete-time Markov chains and study large deviations of the pair empirical occupation measure, which is useful to compute fluctuations of pure-additive and jump-type observables. We provide an exact expression for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-07-04 Giorgio Carugno , Pierpaolo Vivo , Francesco Coghi

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

We present a class of stochastic processes in which the large deviation functions of time-integrated observables exhibit singularities that relate to dynamical phase transitions of trajectories. These illustrative examples include Brownian…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-24 Yogeesh Reddy Yerrababu , Satya N. Majumdar , Benjamin Guiselin , Tridib Sadhu

Stochastic transitions between discrete microscopic states play an important role in many physical and biological systems. Often, these transitions lead to fluctuations on a macroscopic scale. A classic example from neuroscience is the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-20 Lukas Ramlow , Benjamin Lindner

In this paper, we study small noise asymptotics of Markov-modulated diffusion processes in the regime that the modulating Markov chain is rapidly switching. We prove the joint sample-path large deviations principle for the Markov-modulated…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Gang Huang , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We describe a simple method of umbrella trajectory sampling for Markov chains. The method allows the estimation of large-deviation rate functions, for path-extensive dynamic observables, for an arbitrary number of models within a certain…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-08-01 Stephen Whitelam

Large dynamical fluctuations - atypical realizations of the dynamics sustained over long periods of time - can play a fundamental role in determining the properties of collective behavior of both classical and quantum non-equilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-07-18 Federico Carollo , Juan P. Garrahan , Igor Lesanovsky , Carlos Pérez-Espigares

We study the large deviations of Markov chains under the sole assumption that the state space is discrete. In particular, we do not require any of the usual irreducibility and exponential tightness assumptions. Using subadditive arguments,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Léo Daures

Dynamic heterogeneity has often been modeled by assuming that a single-particle observable, fluctuating at a molecular scale, is influenced by its coupling to environmental variables fluctuating on a second, perhaps slower, time scale.…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 Gregor Diezemann , Gerald Hinze , Hans Sillescu

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-09-15 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

We propose a computational method for large deviation statistics of time-averaged quantities in general Markov processes. In our proposed method, we repeat a response measurement against external forces, where the forces are determined by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-12 Takahiro Nemoto , Shin-ichi Sasa

We present a systematic analysis of stochastic processes conditioned on an empirical measure $Q_T$ defined in a time interval $[0,T]$ for large $T$. We build our analysis starting from a discrete time Markov chain. Results for a continuous…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-26 Bernard Derrida , Tridib Sadhu

We study current fluctuations in lattice gases in the hydrodynamic scaling limit. More precisely, we prove a large deviation principle for the empirical current in the symmetric simple exclusion process with rate functional I. We then…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-18 L. Bertini , A. De Sole , D. Gabrielli , G. Jona-Lasinio , C. Landim

We calculate the large deviation functions characterizing the long-time fluctuations of the occupation of drifted Brownian motion and show that these functions have non-analytic points. This provides the first example of dynamical phase…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-02-03 Pelerine Tsobgni Nyawo , Hugo Touchette

Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-03-11 R. Toenjes , H. Kori

Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-18 Son L. Nguyen , George Yin , Tuan A. Hoang

We consider Markov chains which are polynomially mixing, in a weak sense expressed in terms of the space of functions on which the mixing speed is controlled. In this context, we prove polynomial large and moderate deviations inequalities.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-22 J Dedecker , Sébastien Gouëzel , F Merlevède

We consider the maximum entropy Markov chain inference approach to characterize the collective statistics of neuronal spike trains, focusing on the statistical properties of the inferred model. We review large deviations techniques useful…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-15 Rodrigo Cofre , Cesar Maldonado , Fernando Rosas
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