Related papers: Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-M…
This research extends the conventional concepts of the bid--ask spread (BAS) and mid-price to include the total market order book bid--ask spread (TMOBBAS) and the global mid-price (GMP). Using high-frequency trading data, we investigate…
We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson…
We consider arbitrage free valuation of European options in Black-Scholes and Merton markets, where the general structure of the market is known, however the specific parameters are not known. In order to reflect this subjective uncertainty…
We provide closed-form market equilibrium formula consolidating informational imperfections and investors beliefs. Based on Merton's model, we characterize the equilibrium expected excess returns vector with incomplete information. We then…
We propose a general framework of European power option pricing under two different market assumptions about extended Vasic\v{e}k interest rate process and exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck asset process with continuous dividend as underlying,…
In day-ahead electricity markets based on uniform marginal pricing, small variations in the offering and bidding curves may substantially modify the resulting market outcomes. In this work, we deal with the problem of finding the optimal…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
This paper aims at transferring the philosophy behind Heath-Jarrow-Morton to the modelling of call options with all strikes and maturities. Contrary to the approach by Carmona and Nadtochiy (2009) and related to the recent contribution…
We propose a multi-factor polynomial framework to model and hedge long-term electricity contracts with delivery period. This framework has several advantages: the computation of forwards, risk premium and correlation between different…
To construct a no-arbitrage defaultable bond market, we work on the state price density framework. Using the heat kernel approach (HKA for short) with the killing of a Markov process, we construct a single defaultable bond market that…
Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most…
We consider discrete time Heath-Jarrow-Morton type interest rate models, where the interest rate curves are driven by a geometric spatial autoregression field. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators…
A classical inventory problem is studied from the perspective of embedded options, reducing inventory-management to the design of optimal contracts for forward delivery of stock (commodity). Financial option techniques \`{a} la…
We study the optimal stopping problem of pricing an American Put option on a Zero Coupon Bond (ZCB) in the Musiela's parametrization of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model for forward interest rates. First we show regularity properties of…
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that…
We study the forward investment performance process (FIPP) in an incomplete semimartingale market model with closed and convex portfolio constraints, when the investor's risk preferences are of the power form. We provide necessary and…
In this paper, a multivariate constrained robust M-regression (MCRM) method is developed to estimate shaping coefficients for electricity forward prices. An important benefit of the new method is that model arbitrage can be ruled out at an…
This paper considers the single factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model for the interest rate curve with stochastic volatility. Its natural formulation, described in terms of stochastic differential equations, is solved through Monte Carlo…
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary…
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…