Related papers: NDSHA: robust and reliable seismic hazard assessme…
This study presents the development and application of a scalable non-ergodic ground motion model (NGMM) for the Los Angeles area. The NGMM is trained and validated on physics-based simulated ground-motion data from a recent Statewide…
Ensuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is essential, especially for facilities that rely on base isolation to reduce earthquake impacts. For understanding the seismic response, accurate models are key to predict the…
In this paper we describe a general framework for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and propose the Pattern Method and a simpler special case called the $\Delta t$ Method as effective approaches.…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which…
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
Resilience has emerged as a crucial concept for evaluating structural performance under disasters because of its ability to extend beyond traditional risk assessments, accounting for a system's ability to minimize disruptions and maintain…
Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…
We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson,…
Post-disaster inspections are critical to emergency management after earthquakes. The availability of data on the condition of civil infrastructure immediately after an earthquake is of great importance for emergency management.…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
We present a new technique in order to quantify the dynamics of spatially extended systems. Using a test on the existence of unstable periodic orbits, we identify intermediate spatial scales, wherein the dynamics is characterized by maximum…
Rapid and accurate estimation of post-earthquake ground failures and building damage is critical for effective post-disaster responses. Progression in remote sensing technologies has paved the way for rapid acquisition of detailed,…
The basic purpose of the paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One of examples of such kind of signals is presented by seismograms containing…
By building on a recently introduced genetic-inspired attribute-based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel methodology to compute construction univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at a situational…
The Earthquake Network research project implements a crowdsourced earthquake early warning system based on smartphones. Smartphones, which are made available by the global population, exploit the Internet connection to report a signal to a…
The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…