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Related papers: Covariances, Robustness, and Variational Bayes

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The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Terrance D. Savitsky , Julie Gershunskaya

One of the main modeling in many data science applications is the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and Mean Field Variational Bayesian Inference (MFVBI) is classically used for approximate fast computation. In this paper, we provide a…

Differential Geometry · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Alireza Bahraini , Saeed Sadeghi

In this paper, the theory of mean-field backward doubly stochastic Volterra integral equations (MF-BDSVIEs) is studied. First, we derive the well-posedness of M-solutions to MFBDSVIEs, and prove the comparison theorem for such a type of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-21 Bixuan Yang , Jinbiao Wu , Tiexin Guo

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been…

Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Matteo Iacopini , Aubrey Poon , Luca Rossini , Dan Zhu

This article explores the optimization of variational approximations for posterior covariances of Gaussian multiway arrays. To achieve this, we establish a natural differential geometric optimization framework on the space using the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-10 Quinn Simonis , Martin T. Wells

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) have emerged as a crucial approach for interpreting ML predictions. By sampling from the posterior distribution, data scientists may estimate the uncertainty of an inference. Unfortunately many inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Thomas D. Ahle , Sahar Karimi , Peter Tak Peter Tang

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-19 Wei-Ting Lai , Ray-Bing Chen , Ying Chen , Thorsten Koch

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

We have utilized the non-conjugate Variational Bayesian (VB) method for the problem of the sparse Poisson regression model. To provide approximate conjugacy in the model, the likelihood is approximated by a quadratic function, yielding…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Mitra Kharabati , Morteza Amini , Mohammad Arashi

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Antonio Di Noia , Fabrizio Ruggeri , Antonietta Mira

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of parameters in geophysical forward models. Badlands (basin and landscape dynamics model) is a landscape evolution model that simulates…

We provide the first convergence guarantee for full black-box variational inference (BBVI), also known as Monte Carlo variational inference. While preliminary investigations worked on simplified versions of BBVI (e.g., bounded domain,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Kyurae Kim , Jisu Oh , Kaiwen Wu , Yi-An Ma , Jacob R. Gardner

The posterior over Bayesian neural network (BNN) parameters is extremely high-dimensional and non-convex. For computational reasons, researchers approximate this posterior using inexpensive mini-batch methods such as mean-field variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Pavel Izmailov , Sharad Vikram , Matthew D. Hoffman , Andrew Gordon Wilson

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Ajay Jasra , Seongil Jo , David Nott , Christine Shoemaker , Raul Tempone

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Fei Zhou , Jie Ren , Shuangge Ma , Cen Wu

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Thomas Y. Sun , Daniel R. Kowal

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle