English
Related papers

Related papers: Ruin probability for discrete risk processes

200 papers

We tackle some fundamental problems in probability theory on corrupted random processes on the integer line. We analyze when a biased random walk is expected to reach its bottommost point and when intervals of integer points can be detected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-31 Daniel Berend , Aryeh Kontorovich , Lev Reyzin , Thomas Robinson

We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Rudi Schäfer , Markus Sjölin , Andreas Sundin , Michal Wolanski , Thomas Guhr

We study the gambler's ruin problem for the Elephant Random Walk, focusing on escape time from a symmetric interval of the form $\{-N, \ldots, N\}$. As our main result, we derive tight exponential bounds for the tail of this escape time. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Morgan André , Leonel Zuaznábar

We study the biased random walk process in random uncorrelated networks with arbitrary degree distributions. In our model, the bias is defined by the preferential transition probability, which, in recent years, has been commonly used to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2013-05-29 Agata Fronczak , Piotr Fronczak

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Zbigniew Palmowski , Stan Zachary

We consider random walks in which the walk originates in one set of nodes and then continues until it reaches one or more nodes in a target set. The time required for the walk to reach the target set is of interest in understanding the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-01-11 Andrew Clark , Basel Alomair , Linda Bushnell , Radha Poovendran

We investigate the asymptotic of ruin probabilities when the company combines the life- and non-life insurance businesses and invests its reserve into a risky asset with stochastic volatility and drift driven by a two-state Markov process.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-10 Anastasiya Ellanskaya , Yuri Kabanov

We study the first-passage properties of a random walk in the unit interval in which the length of a single step is uniformly distributed over the finite range [-a,a]. For a of the order of one, the exit probabilities to each edge of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 T. Antal , S. Redner

The aim of this paper is to construct the confidence interval of the ultimate ruin probability under the insurance surplus driven by a L\'evy process. Assuming a parametric family for the L\'evy measures, we estimate the parameter from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-15 Yasutaka Shimizu

We consider a particle moving in continuous time as a Markov jump process; its discrete chain is given by an ordinary random walk on ${\mathbb Z}^d$ , and its jump rate at $({\mathbf x},t)$ is given by a fixed function $\varphi$ of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-03 Luiz Renato Fontes , Pablo Almeida Gomes , Maicon Aparecido Pinheiro

We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-12 Vincent Bansaye , Vladimir Vatutin

We investigate models of the life annuity insurance when the company invests its reserve into a risky asset with price following a geometric Brownian motion. Our main result is an exact asymptotic of the ruin probabilities for the case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Yuri Kabanov , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Matija Vidmar

Parisian ruin probability in the classical Brownian risk model, unlike the standard ruin probability can not be explicitly calculated even in one-dimensional setup. Resorting on asymptotic theory, we derive in this contribution an…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Nikolai Kriukov

The paper deals with the asymptotic behavior of the bridge of a Gaussian process conditioned to stay in $n$ fixed points at $n$ fixed past instants. In particular, functional large deviation results are stated for small time. Several…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-06 L. Caramellino , B. Pacchiarotti

In the setting of a L\'evy insurance risk process, we present some results regarding the Parisian ruin problem which concerns the occurrence of an excursion below zero of duration bigger than a given threshold $r$. First, we give the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Ronne Loeffen , Zbigniew Palmowski , Budhi Surya

We study a multidimensional renewal risk model, with common counting process and cadlag returns. Considering that the claim vectors have common distribution from some multivariate distribution class with heavy tail, are mutually weakly…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

This paper is a collection of recent results on discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. Some results are new and others are known. Many aspects of this theory are considered: local, global and strong local survival, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Daniela Bertacchi , Fabio Zucca

The gambler's ruin problem for correlated random walks (CRW), both with and without delays, is addressed using the Optional Stopping Theorem for martingales. We derive closed-form expressions for the ruin probabilities and the expected game…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Vladimir Pozdnyakov

We consider a discrete-time process adapted to some filtration which lives on a (typically countable) subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\geq 2$. For this process, we assume that it has uniformly bounded jumps, is uniformly elliptic (can advance…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-28 Mikhail Menshikov , Serguei Popov