Related papers: Hamiltonian Flow Simulation of Rare Events

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high…

Latent variable models are increasingly used in economics for high-dimensional categorical data like text and surveys. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with parallelized automatic differentiation for…

The bifurcation method is a way to do rare event sampling -- to estimate the probability of events that are too rare to be found by direct simulation. We describe the bifurcation method and use it to estimate the transition rate of a double…

Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients…

In recent years, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm has been found to work more efficiently compared to other popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as random walk Metropolis-Hastings) in generating samples from a…

Modified Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MHMC) methods combine the ideas behind two popular sampling approaches: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and importance sampling. As in the HMC case, the bulk of the computational cost of MHMC algorithms lies…

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

Automated Vehicle (AV) validation based on simulated testing requires unbiased evaluation and high efficiency. One effective solution is to increase the exposure to risky rare events while reweighting the probability measure. However,…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient and effective means of sampling posterior distributions on Euclidean space, which has been extended to manifolds with boundary. However, some applications require an extension to more general…

In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…

Hybrid Monte Carlo is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from complex continuous distributions. However, a major limitation of HMC is its inability to be applied to discrete domains due to the lack of gradient signal.…

We propose a generic approach for numerically efficient simulation from analytically intractable distributions with constrained support. Our approach relies upon Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) processes and combines…

Traditional gradient-based sampling methods, like standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, require that the desired target distribution is continuous and differentiable. This limits the types of models one can define, although the presented models…

We describe a new Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for dynamical overlap fermions, which improves the rate of topological index changes by adding an additional (intensive) term to the action for the molecular dynamics part of the…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference of target posterior distributions in machine learning is predominately conducted via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants. This is due to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo based samplers ability to suppress…

Piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers constitute a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo paradigm in Bayesian computation, with examples including the zig-zag and bouncy particle sampler (bps). Recent work on the…

Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…

We combine the one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation and the semi-analytical one-dimensional heat potential method to design an efficient technique for pricing barrier options on assets with correlated stochastic volatility. Our approach…

We consider the problem of sampling from posterior distributions for Bayesian models where some parameters are restricted to be orthogonal matrices. Such matrices are sometimes used in neural networks models for reasons of regularization…

Numerous applications in biology, statistics, science, and engineering require generating samples from high-dimensional probability distributions. In recent years, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method has emerged as a state-of-the-art…