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The Cram\'er-Lundberg model with exponential claims and proportional investment is solved exactly: the integro-differential equation for the survival probability reduces to a doubly confluent Heun equation, yielding an explicit solution in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-13 Platon Promyslov , Maxim Romanov , Goluba Yurieva

We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-26 Frank Aurzada , Micha Buck

We investigate the Levy insurance risk model with tax under Cram\'er's condition. A direct analogue of Cram\'er's estimate for the probability of ruin in this model is obtained, together with the asymptotic distribution, conditional on ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Philip Griffin

We consider a surplus process of drifted fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst index $H>1/2$, which appears as a functional limit of drifted compound Poisson risk models with correlated claims, and this is a kind of representation of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Shota Nakamura , Yasutaka Shimizu

In this paper we consider the Parisian ruin probabilities for the dual risk model in a discrete-time setting. By exploiting the strong Markov property of the risk process we derive a recursive expression for the fnite-time Parisian ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-24 Zbigniew Palmowski , Lewis Ramsden , Apostolos D. Papaioannou

One possible way of risk management for an insurance company is to develop an early and appropriate alarm system before the possible ruin. The ruin is defined through the status of the aggregate risk process, which in turn is determined by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-06-30 Shubhabrata Das , Marie Kratz

In reliability and life testing studies, the topic of estimating hazard rate has received great attention in recent years since an estimate of hazard rate is a quite useful tool for making decisions. Some works have included nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-24 Baris Surucu

In this work, we consider extensions of the dual risk model with proportional gains by introducing a dependence structure between gain sizes and gain interrarrival times. Among others, we further consider the case where the proportional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Ioannis Dimitriou

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit-state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-21 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Calibration is a vital aspect of the performance of risk prediction models, but research in the context of ordinal outcomes is scarce. This study compared calibration measures for risk models predicting a discrete ordinal outcome, and…

We investigate the performance of the Kelly rule in a setting in which the dynamics of the return is represented by a time change process. We find that in this general semi-martingale setting the Kelly rule does not maximize the average…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-17 Umberto Cherubini

Since its inception in the mid-60s, the inventory staggering problem has been explored and exploited in a wide range of application domains, such as production planning, stock control systems, warehousing, and aerospace/defense logistics.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Noga Alon , Danny Segev

This note is an addendum to the work initiated by Eberlein, Kabanov, and Schmidt and developed further by Kabanov and Promyslov on the asymptotics of the ruin probabilities in the Sparre Andersen model with investments in a risky asset.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Yuri Kabanov , Danil Legenkiy , Platon Promyslov

We explicitly find the rate of exponential long-term convergence for the ruin probability in a level-dependent L\'evy-driven risk model, as time goes to infinity. Siegmund duality allows to reduce the pro blem to long-term convergence of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-02 Pierre-Olivier Goffard , Andrey Sarantsev

The paper deals with the ruin problem of an insurance company investing its capital reserve in a risky asset with the price dynamics given by a conditional geometric Brownian motion whose parameters depend on a Markov process describing a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Viktor Antipov , Yuri Kabanov

Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-23 Magda Schiegl

This note is a complement to the paper by Eberlein, Kabanov, and Schmidt on the asymptotic of the ruin probability in a Sparre Andersen non-life insurance model with investments a risky asset whose price follows a geometric L\'evy process.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Yuri Kabanov , Platon Promyslov

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-13 Dongdong Hu , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Hasanjan Sayit , Hailiang Yang , Yildiray Yildirim

We consider elliptic variational inequalities generated by obstacle type problems with thin obstacles. For this class of problems, we deduce estimates of the distance (measured in terms of the natural energy norm) between the exact solution…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-09-18 Darya E. Apushkinskaya , Sergey I. Repin

We study the problem of robustly estimating the mean of a $d$-dimensional distribution given $N$ examples, where most coordinates of every example may be missing and $\varepsilon N$ examples may be arbitrarily corrupted. Assuming each…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Lunjia Hu , Omer Reingold