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Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting…

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et. al., 2010) is a powerful predictive model that often outperforms alternative models at out-of-sample prediction. BART is especially well-suited to settings with unstructured predictor…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees(BART) is a Bayesian nonparametric approach which has been shown to be competitive with the best modern predictive methods such as random forest and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree.The sum of trees…

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

In this paper, we investigate adaptive nonlinear regression and introduce tree based piecewise linear regression algorithms that are highly efficient and provide significantly improved performance with guaranteed upper bounds in an…

Ensemble learning is a statistical paradigm built on the premise that many weak learners can perform exceptionally well when deployed collectively. The BART method of Chipman et al. (2010) is a prominent example of Bayesian ensemble…

We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…

Regression forests have long delivered state-of-the-art accuracy, often outperforming regression trees and even neural networks, but they suffer from limited interpretability as ensemble methods. In this work, we revisit forest pruning, an…

We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the…

We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be…

Over the past decade, random forest models have become widely used as a robust method for high-dimensional data regression tasks. In part, the popularity of these models arises from the fact that they require little hyperparameter tuning…

Decision trees are an extremely popular machine learning technique. Unfortunately, overfitting in decision trees still remains an open issue that sometimes prevents achieving good performance. In this work, we present a novel approach for…

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Decision trees are widely used due to their interpretability and efficiency, but they struggle in regression tasks that require reliable extrapolation and well-calibrated uncertainty. Piecewise-constant leaf predictions are bounded by the…

We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble…

Given overlapping subsets of a set of taxa (e.g. species), and posterior distributions on phylogenetic tree topologies for each of these taxon sets, how can we infer a posterior distribution on phylogenetic tree topologies for the entire…

The Binary Space Partitioning~(BSP)-Tree process is proposed to produce flexible 2-D partition structures which are originally used as a Bayesian nonparametric prior for relational modelling. It can hardly be applied to other learning tasks…

In this paper, we study the learning rate of generalized Bayes estimators in a general setting where the hypothesis class can be uncountable and have an irregular shape, the loss function can have heavy tails, and the optimal hypothesis may…

Several structure-learning algorithms for staged trees, asymmetric extensions of Bayesian networks, have been proposed. However, these either do not scale efficiently as the number of variables considered increases, a priori restrict the…