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To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-30 Shai Feldman , Liran Ringel , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

Ranking, and inferences based on ranking of a set of entities, are important problems in numerous contexts. This is especially true in small area statistics where there may be only a limited amount of directly observed data from each entity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Gauri Sankar Datta , Yiren Hou , Abhyuday Mandal

In this paper, we study a distributed optimization problem for a class of high-order multi-agent systems with unknown dynamics. In comparison with existing results for integrators or linear agents, we need to overcome the difficulties…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Yutao Tang

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Carlos García Meixide , Michael R. Kosorok , Marcos Matabuena

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

We formulate selecting the best optimizing system (SBOS) problems and provide solutions for those problems. In an SBOS problem, a finite number of systems are contenders. Inside each system, a continuous decision variable affects the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Nian Si , Yifu Tang , Zeyu Zheng

We consider the problem of sequential evaluation, in which an evaluator observes candidates in a sequence and assigns scores to these candidates in an online, irrevocable fashion. Motivated by the psychology literature that has studied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-20 Jingyan Wang , Ashwin Pananjady

Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly…

In this paper, we study randomized methods for feedback design of uncertain systems. The first contribution is to derive the sample complexity of various constrained control problems. In particular, we show the key role played by the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-07-22 T. Alamo , R. Tempo , A. Luque , D. R. Ramirez

Rank estimation is a classical model order selection problem that arises in a variety of important statistical signal and array processing systems, yet is addressed relatively infrequently in the extant literature. Here we present sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-25 Patrick O. Perry , Patrick J. Wolfe

Many set selection and ranking algorithms have recently been enhanced with diversity constraints that aim to explicitly increase representation of historically disadvantaged populations, or to improve the overall representativeness of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-06-06 Ke Yang , Vasilis Gkatzelis , Julia Stoyanovich

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Data-driven models (DDM) based on machine learning and other AI techniques play an important role in the perception of increasingly autonomous systems. Due to the merely implicit definition of their behavior mainly based on the data used…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Janek Groß , Rasmus Adler , Michael Kläs , Jan Reich , Lisa Jöckel , Roman Gansch

When building recommendation systems, we seek to output a helpful set of items to the user. Under the hood, a ranking model predicts which of two candidate items is better, and we must distill these pairwise comparisons into the user-facing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Karl Krauth , Stephen Bates , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

We consider robust shortest path problems, where the aim is to find a path that optimizes the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set containing all relevant scenarios for arc costs. The usual approach for such problems is to assume…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-13 André Chassein , Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk

We consider stochastic optimization under distributional uncertainty, where the unknown distributional parameter is estimated from streaming data that arrive sequentially over time. Moreover, data may depend on the decision of the time when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Tianyi Liu , Yifan Lin , Enlu Zhou

We consider the problem of deciding on sampling strategy, in particular sampling design. We propose a risk measure, whose minimizing value guides the choice. The method makes use of a superpopulation model and takes into account uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-06 Edgar Bueno , Dan Hedlin