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Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…
A simple analytical/numerical model has been developed for computing the evolution, over periods of up to a few hours, of the current and temperature profile in the upper layer of the ocean. The model is based upon conservation laws for…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the drift of objects in near coastal ocean on a period of several weeks. The proposed approach consists in estimating the probability of events linked to the drift using Monte Carlo…
Atmospheric collapse is likely to be of fundamental importance to tidally locked rocky exoplanets but remains understudied. Here, general results on the heat transport and stability of tidally locked terrestrial-type atmospheres are…
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past…
Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have…
The meltwater mixing line (MML) model provides a theoretical prediction of near-ice water mass properties that is useful to compare with observations. If oceanographic measurements reported in a temperature-salinity diagram overlap with the…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Across the stable density stratification of the abyssal ocean, deep dense water is slowly propelled upward by sustained, though irregular, turbulent mixing. The resulting mean upwelling determines large-scale oceanic circulation properties…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Accurate and efficient climate simulations are crucial for understanding Earth's evolving climate. However, current general circulation models (GCMs) face challenges in capturing unresolved physical processes, such as cloud and convection.…
We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
Aims: The long-term carbon cycle for planets with a surface entirely covered by oceans works differently from that of the present-day Earth because inefficient erosion leads to a strong dependence of the weathering rate on the rate of…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
Semidiurnal atmospheric thermal tides are important for terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone of their host stars. With solid tides, they torque these planets, thus contributing to determine their rotation states as well as their…
Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…