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Covered bonds are a specific example of senior secured debt. If the issuer of the bonds defaults the proceeds of the assets in the cover pool are used for their debt service. If in this situation the cover pool proceeds do not suffice for…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-22 Dirk Tasche

Nonparametric density estimation is an unsupervised learning problem. In this work we propose a two-step procedure that casts the density estimation problem in the first step into a supervised regression problem. The advantage is that we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Thijs Bos , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

In the realm of globalized financial markets, commercial banks are confronted with an escalating magnitude of credit risk, thereby imposing heightened requisites upon the security of bank assets and financial stability. This study harnesses…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-31 Yu Cheng , Qin Yang , Liyang Wang , Ao Xiang , Jingyu Zhang

We provide a general HJM framework for forward contracts written on abstract market indices with arbitrary fixing and payment adjustments, and featuring collateralization in any currency denominations. In view of this, we first provide a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Alessandro Gnoatto , Silvia Lavagnini

This project was motivated by a dialysis study in northern Taiwan. Dialysis patients, after shunt implantation, may experience two types ("acute" or "non-acute") of shunt thrombosis, both of which may recur. We formulate the problem under…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-07 Bowen Li

Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Hemlata Sharma , Aparna Andhalkar , Oluwaseun Ajao , Bayode Ogunleye

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-08 Pengyu Wang , Phil Blunsom

We propose a nonparametric algorithm to detect structural breaks in the conditional mean and/or variance of a time series. Our method does not assume any specific parametric form for the dependence structure of the regressor, the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Archi Roy , Moumanti Podder , Soudeep Deb

We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-14 Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Wen Zhang

We consider nonparametric estimation of mean regression and conditional variance (or volatility) functions in nonlinear stochastic regression models. Simultaneous confidence bands are constructed and the coverage probabilities are shown to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-08 Zhibiao Zhao , Wei Biao Wu

Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-29 Pekka Malo , Lauri Viitasaari , Olga Gorskikh , Pauliina Ilmonen

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-08 Martin Guth

We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-12 Alice X. D. Dong , Jennifer S. K. Chan , Gareth W. Peters

The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-24 Martin Tegnér , Stephen Roberts

We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-27 Cheikh Mbaye , Frédéric Vrins

The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed…

General Economics · Economics 2019-12-20 Shteryo Nozharov

The available data in semi-supervised learning usually consists of relatively small sized labeled data and much larger sized unlabeled data. How to effectively exploit unlabeled data is the key issue. In this paper, we write the regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-13 Ziwen Gao , Huihang Liu , Xinyu Zhang

We present a general framework for the estimation of corporate default based on a firm's capital structure, when its assets are assumed to follow a pure jump L\'evy processes; this setup provides a natural extension to usual default metrics…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-13 Jean-Philippe Aguilar , Nicolas Pesci , Victor James

By removing parameters from deep neural networks, unstructured pruning methods aim at cutting down memory footprint and computational cost, while maintaining prediction accuracy. In order to tackle this otherwise intractable problem, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 César Laurent , Camille Ballas , Thomas George , Nicolas Ballas , Pascal Vincent

Motivated by the problem of nonparametric inference in high level digital image analysis, we introduce a general extrinsic approach for data analysis on Hilbert manifolds with a focus on means of probability distributions on such sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-11 Leif Ellingson , Vic Patrangenaru , Frits Ruymgaart