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Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) pose the largest uncertainty for climate projections. Among many challenges of understanding ACI, the question of whether ACI is deterministic or stochastic has not been explicitly formulated and asked. Here…
We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are…
Model Predictive Control is an extremely effective control method for systems with input and state constraints. Model Predictive Control performance heavily depends on the accuracy of the open-loop prediction. For systems with uncertainty…
Downscaling aims to link the behaviour of the atmosphere at fine scales to properties measurable at coarser scales, and has the potential to provide high resolution information at a lower computational and storage cost than numerical…
Turbulence parametrizations will remain a necessary building block in kilometer-scale Earth system models. In convective boundary layers, where the mean vertical gradients of conserved properties such as potential temperature and moisture…
Environmental contours are tools frequently used in the early design of marine structures. They provide a description of critical design conditions and serve as a means for simplifying expensive long-term response calculations. Here, we…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…
Storm surges cause coastal inundations due to the setup of the water surface resulting from atmospheric pressure, surface winds and breaking waves. The latter is particularly difficult to be accounted for. For instance, it was observed that…
Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained…
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…
Spatio-temporal forecasting is challenging attributing to the high nonlinearity in temporal dynamics as well as complex location-characterized patterns in spatial domains, especially in fields like weather forecasting. Graph convolutions…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
One the major factors determining the development and evolution of atmospheric convection is the sea surface temperature and its variability. Results of this thesis show that state of atmospheric convection impacts the diurnal distribution…
Tropical convective clouds evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, and this makes them difficult to simulate numerically. Here, we propose that their statistical properties can be derived within a simplified…
Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…
Inspired by the similarity of the atmosphere-ocean physical coupling mechanism, this study innovatively migrates meteorological large-model techniques to the ocean domain, constructing the KunPeng global ocean environmental prediction…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and…
Subgrid parameterizations of mesoscale eddies continue to be in demand for climate simulations. These subgrid parameterizations can be powerfully designed using physics and/or data-driven methods, with uncertainty quantification. For…
The diurnal cycle of precipitation near New Guinea involves intricate land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, posing substantial challenges for tropical weather and climate simulations. Using over two decades of GPM satellite observations and…