Related papers: Coastal Tropical Convection in a Stochastic Modeli…
Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
Coastally associated rainfall is a common feature especially in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it has been difficult to quantify the contribution of coastal rainfall features to the overall local rainfall. We develop a novel…
Determining the behaviour of convection and clouds is one of the biggest challenges in our understanding of exoplanetary climates. Given the lack of in situ observations, one of the most preferable approaches is to use cloud-resolving or…
Observations of tropical convection from precipitation radar and the concurring large-scale atmospheric state at two locations (Darwin and Kwajalein) are used to establish effective stochastic models to parameterise subgrid-scale tropical…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
Self-aggregation of tropical convection is a universal feature observed in a diverse range of atmospheric environments. Several preceding models conceptualized the self-aggregation of convection as a phase transition driven by collisions…
Convective self-aggregation is a modelling paradigm for thunderstorm organisation over a constant-temperature tropical sea surface. This setup can give rise to cloud clusters over timescales of weeks. In reality, sea surface temperatures do…
Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…
The diurnal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) may play an important role for cloud organization above the tropical ocean, with implications for precipitation extremes, storminess, and climate sensitivity. Recent cloud-resolving…
We develop a stochastic parametrization, based on a `simple' deterministic model for the dynamics of steady longshore currents, that produces ensembles that are statistically consistent with field observations of these currents. Unlike…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
To elucidate how land surface state and soil moisture dynamics regulate moist convection, and how convective rainfall subsequently reshapes surface and root-zone hydrology, we develop a stochastic dynamical model that couples soil moisture,…
Neural networks are a promising technique for parameterizing sub-grid-scale physics (e.g. moist atmospheric convection) in coarse-resolution climate models, but their lack of interpretability and reliability prevents widespread adoption.…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
The representations of atmospheric moist convection in general circulation models have been one of the most challenging tasks due to its complexity in physical processes, and the interaction between processes under different time/spatial…
Accurate representation of atmosphere-ocean boundary layers, including the interplay of turbulence, surface waves, and air-sea fluxes, remains a challenge in geophysical fluid dynamics, particularly for climate simulations. This study…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…