English
Related papers

Related papers: A Tutorial on Hawkes Processes for Events in Socia…

200 papers

Recently proposed encoder-decoder structures for modeling Hawkes processes use transformer-inspired architectures, which encode the history of events via embeddings and self-attention mechanisms. These models deliver better prediction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Yamac Alican Isik , Connor Davis , Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Ricardo Henao

Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Mathilde Perez , Raphaël Romero , Bo Kang , Tijl De Bie , Jefrey Lijffijt , Charlotte Laclau

Reading is a process that unfolds across space and time, alternating between fixations where a reader focuses on a specific point in space, and saccades where a reader rapidly shifts their focus to a new point. An ansatz of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Francesco Ignazio Re , Andreas Opedal , Glib Manaiev , Mario Giulianelli , Ryan Cotterell

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

Quantifying influence in networks is important across science, economics, and public health, yet widely used centrality measures remain limited: they rely on static representations, heuristic network constructions, and purely endogenous…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Didier Sornette , Yishan Luo , Sandro Claudio Lera

A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Luca Mucciante , Alessio Sancetta

The overwhelming amount and rate of information update in online social media is making it increasingly difficult for users to allocate their attention to their topics of interest, thus there is a strong need for prioritizing news feeds.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-11-16 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Safoora Yousefi , Long Q. Tran , Le Song , Hongyuan Zha

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Xenia Miscouridou , Samir Bhatt , George Mohler , Seth Flaxman , Swapnil Mishra

Numerous powerful point process models have been developed to understand temporal patterns in sequential data from fields such as health-care, electronic commerce, social networks, and natural disaster forecasting. In this paper, we develop…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-08-15 Yatao Zhong , Bicheng Xu , Guang-Tong Zhou , Luke Bornn , Greg Mori

We propose the first multistage intervention framework that tackles fake news in social networks by combining reinforcement learning with a point process network activity model. The spread of fake news and mitigation events within the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Jiachen Yang , Xiaojing Ye , Huan Xu , Rakshit Trivedi , Elias Khalil , Shuang Li , Le Song , Hongyuan Zha

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

Nowadays, many platforms on the Web offer organized events, allowing users to be organizers or participants. For such platforms, it is beneficial to predict potential event participants. Existing work on this problem tends to borrow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Yihong Zhang , Takahiro Hara

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

An extension of the Hawkes process, the Marked Hawkes process distinguishes itself by featuring variable jump size across each event, in contrast to the constant jump size observed in a Hawkes process without marks. While extensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Sobin Joseph , Shashi Jain

As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Tiago Santos , Florian Lemmerich , Denis Helic

A detailed analysis of Twitter-based information cascades is performed, and it is demonstrated that branching process hypotheses are approximately satisfied. Using a branching process framework, models of agent-to-agent transmission are…

Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Alex Boyd , Andrew Warrington , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Danica Xiao

Social media users and microbloggers post about a wide variety of (off-line) collective social activities as they participate in them, ranging from concerts and sporting events to political rallies and civil protests. In this context,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-01-12 Martin Jankowiak , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou