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We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Kody J. H. Law , Neil Walton , Shangda Yang , Ajay Jasra

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Marcus J. Grote , Simon Michel , Fabio Nobile

Monte Carlo approximations for random linear elliptic PDE constrained optimization problems are studied. We use empirical process theory to obtain best possible mean convergence rates $O(n^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ for optimal values and solutions,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Werner Römisch , Thomas M. Surowiec

Objective: The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) quantifies the economic benefit of reducing uncertainty in a health economic model by collecting additional information. This has the potential to improve the allocation of research…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-26 Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Anthony Gruber , Max Gunzburger , Lili Ju , Zhu Wang

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Rupak Majumdar , Tigran Nagapetyan

We propose a Multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) method for computing entropy measure valued solutions of hyperbolic conservation laws. Sharp bounds for the narrow convergence of MLMC for the entropy measure valued solutions are proposed. An…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-24 Kjetil Olsen Lye

In this article, we present a review of the recent developments on the topic of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm, in the paradigm of applications in financial engineering. We specifically focus on the recent studies conducted in two…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-30 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

Motivated by various computational applications, we investigate the problem of estimating nested expectations. Building upon recent work by the authors, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator for nested expectations, inspired by sparse…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-08 Tomohiko Hironaka , Takashi Goda

We establish a notion of random entropy solution for degenerate fractional conservation laws incorporating randomness in the initial data, convective flux and diffusive flux. In order to quantify the solution uncertainty, we design a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Ujjwal Koley , Deep Ray , Tanmay Sarkar

While generally considered computationally expensive, Uncertainty Quantification using Monte Carlo sampling remains beneficial for applications with uncertainties of high dimension. As an extension of the naive Monte Carlo method, the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Robert Hahn , Sebastian Schöps

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

Estimating nested expectations is an important task in computational mathematics and statistics. In this paper we propose a new Monte Carlo method using post-stratification to estimate nested expectations efficiently without taking samples…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-28 Tomohiko Hironaka , Takashi Goda

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-11-28 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

This article presents a novel approach, named MCMP (Monte Carlo Motion Planning), to the problem of motion planning under uncertainty, i.e., to the problem of computing a low-cost path that fulfills probabilistic collision avoidance…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-06-01 Lucas Janson , Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Michael B Giles

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications, however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest.…

The approximative calculation of iterated nested expectations is a recurring challenging problem in applications. Nested expectations appear, for example, in the numerical approximation of solutions of backward stochastic differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-30 Christian Beck , Arnulf Jentzen , Thomas Kruse

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

General elliptic equations with spatially discontinuous diffusion coefficients may be used as a simplified model for subsurface flow in heterogeneous or fractured porous media. In such a model, data sparsity and measurement errors are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-29 Andrea Barth , Robin Merkle