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Related papers: Changing World Extreme Temperature Statistics

200 papers

We review the thermal history of the Universe. We obtain a new estimate for the thermal history of the Earth over the past four billion years using a biological thermometer based on (1) a rough estimate of the absolute time calibration of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Charles H. Lineweaver , David Schwartzman

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-23 Arash Khodadadi , Daniel J McDonald

To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2…

The existence of fluctuations of temperature has been a somewhat controversial topic in thermodynamics but nowadays it is recognized that they must be taken into account in small, finite systems. Although for nonequilibrium steady states…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-05 Sergio Davis

Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-12-31 Poulomi Ganguli , Auroop R. Ganguly

We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Armin Bunde , Jan Eichner , Rathinaswamy Govindan , Shlomo Havlin , Eva Koscielny-Bunde , Diego Rybski , Dmitry Vjushin

We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different…

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of two-meter surface air temperature ($T_{2m}$) in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Mitchell L. Krock , Adam H. Monahan , Michael L. Stein

We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

Global monitoring statistics play an important role for developing efficient monitoring schemes for high-dimensional data streams. A number of global monitoring statistics have been proposed in the literature. However, most of them only…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-19 Jun Li

This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-15 Gilmar V. F. Santos , Lucas G. Cordeiro , Claudio A. Rojo , Edison L. Leismann

Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-18 Valerio Lucarini , Vera Melinda Galfi , Gabriele Messori , Jacopo Riboldi

The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential growth, with the number of cases quite well fit in time by $N(t)\propto e^{\alpha t}$, in many countries. We analyze the rate $\alpha$ for each country,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-22 Alessio Notari

Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-06-24 Vimal Mishra , Udit Bhatia , Amar Deep Tiwari

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-05 Michael Ghil , Valerio Lucarini

Monthly instrumental temperature records from 5 stations in the northern hemisphere are analyzed, each of which is local and over 200 years in length, as well as two reconstructed long-range yearly records - from a stalagmite and from tree…

General Physics · Physics 2011-10-11 Horst-Joachim Lüdecke

How is climate change altering the global patterns, frequency, and intensity of drought? To investigate this, we analyzed global drought events from 2000-2020 using a composite of hydrological indices ($\Sigma$(ET-P), SSMI, and GRACE-DSI).…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-27 Qianqian Han , Yijian Zeng , Bob Su

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-23 Paul Sharkey , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon J. Brown

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-25 Justin Finkel , Edwin P. Gerber , Dorian S. Abbot , Jonathan Weare