Related papers: Fast and accurate Bayesian model criticism and con…

This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple…

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often produce overconfident out-of-distribution predictions, motivating Bayesian uncertainty quantification. The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) achieves this by linearizing the DNN and applying Laplace…

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if…

A successful model for high-dimensional spatial extremes should, in principle, be able to describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance…

Evidence synthesis models combine multiple data sources to estimate latent quantities of interest, enabling reliable inference on parameters that are difficult to measure directly. However, shared parameters across data sources can induce…

State-space models are used to describe and analyse dynamical systems. They are ubiquitously used in many scientific fields such as signal processing, finance and ecology to name a few. Particle filters are popular inferential methods used…

In this review, we assess the use of Bayesian methods in model predictive control (MPC), focusing on neural-network-based modeling, control design, and uncertainty quantification. We systematically analyze individual studies and how they…

This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by…

This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…

In several observational contexts where different raters evaluate a set of items, it is common to assume that all raters draw their scores from the same underlying distribution. However, a plenty of scientific works have evidenced the…

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…

Models are often misspecified in practice, making model criticism a key part of Bayesian analysis. It is important to detect not only when a model is wrong, but which aspects are wrong, and to do so in a computationally convenient and…

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has significantly influenced the quality of information in decision-making systems, leading to the prevalence of AI-generated content and challenges in detecting misinformation and managing…

Modern machine learning applications should be able to address the intrinsic challenges arising over inference on massive real-world datasets, including scalability and robustness to outliers. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian…

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the…

Modern methods for quantifying and predicting species distribution play a crucial part in biodiversity conservation. Occupancy models are a popular choice for analyzing species occurrence data as they allow to separate the observational…

Hierarchical data with multiple observations per group is ubiquitous in empirical sciences and is often analyzed using mixed-effects regression. In such models, Bayesian inference gives an estimate of uncertainty but is analytically…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…