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We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

Sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) is an efficient adaptive simulation method for estimating failure probabilities. It expresses the failure probability as the product of a group of integrals that are easy to estimate,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Kai Chenga , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Penalised estimation methods for point processes usually rely on a large amount of independent repetitions for cross-validation purposes. However, in the case of a single realisation of the process, existing cross-validation methods may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Miguel Martinez Herrera , Felix Cheysson

We propose localized spectral estimators for the quadratic covariation and the spot covolatility of diffusion processes which are observed discretely with additive observation noise. The eligibility of this approach to lead to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Markus Bibinger , Markus Reiß

In a classical regression model, it is usually assumed that the explanatory variables are independent of each other and error terms are normally distributed. But when these assumptions are not met, situations like the error terms are not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Bahadır Yüzbaşı , Yasin Asar , Ahmet Demiralp , M. Şamil Şık

The spectral deferred correction method is a variant of the deferred correction method for solving ordinary differential equations. A benefit of this method is that is uses low order schemes iteratively to produce a high order…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Jehanzeb H. Chaudhry , J. B. Collins

Estimating causal effects with propensity scores relies upon the availability of treated and untreated units observed at each value of the estimated propensity score. In settings with strong confounding, limited so-called "overlap" in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-25 Corwin M Zigler , Matthew Cefalu

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Central moments and cumulants are often employed to characterize the distribution of data. The skewness and kurtosis are particularly useful for the detection of outliers, the assessment of departures from normally distributed data,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-03-24 Lorenzo Rimoldini

Species distribution modeling (SDM) plays a crucial role in investigating habitat suitability and addressing various ecological issues. While likelihood analysis is commonly used to draw ecological conclusions, it has been observed that its…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Yusuke Saigusa , Shinto Eguchi , Osamu Komori

Wavelet phase is a critical parameter in seismic processing, where zero-phase wavelets are essential for maximizing temporal resolution and ensuring accurate interpretation of subsurface structures. In practice, however, the seismic wavelet…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-04-09 Ali Gholami

We study the classification performance of Kronecker-structured models in two asymptotic regimes and developed an algorithm for separable, fast and compact K-S dictionary learning for better classification and representation of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Ishan Jindal , Matthew Nokleby

Density estimation and inference methods are widely used in empirical work. When the underlying distribution has compact support, conventional kernel-based density estimators are no longer consistent near or at the boundary because of their…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-24 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Xinwei Ma

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-12 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

We develop two surprising new results regarding the use of proper scoring rules for evaluating the predictive quality of two alternative sequential forecast distributions. Both of the proponents prefer to be awarded a score derived from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Frank Lad , Giuseppe Sanfilippo

Self-distillation has emerged as a promising technique for improving model performance in modern machine learning systems. We develop the statistical foundations of self-distillation in spiked covariance models, by introducing and analyzing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Radu Lecoiu , Debarghya Mukherjee , Pragya Sur

We study the problem of computationally efficient robust estimation of the covariance/scatter matrix of elliptical distributions -- that is, affine transformations of spherically symmetric distributions -- under the strong contamination…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Gleb Novikov

We introduce a sketch-and-solve approach to speed up the Peng-Wei semidefinite relaxation of k-means clustering. When the data is appropriately separated we identify the k-means optimal clustering. Otherwise, our approach provides a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Charles Clum , Dustin G. Mixon , Soledad Villar , Kaiying Xie

We study a cutting-plane method for semidefinite optimization problems (SDOs), and supply a proof of the method's convergence, under a boundedness assumption. By relating the method's rate of convergence to an initial outer approximation's…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Dimitris Bertsimas , Ryan Cory-Wright

The performance of image based stereo estimation suffers from lighting variations, repetitive patterns and homogeneous appearance. Moreover, to achieve good performance, stereo supervision requires sufficient densely-labeled data, which are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Yu-Kai Huang , Yueh-Cheng Liu , Tsung-Han Wu , Hung-Ting Su , Winston H. Hsu