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A time-varying empirical spectral process indexed by classes of functions is defined for locally stationary time series. We derive weak convergence in a function space, and prove a maximal exponential inequality and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-02-10 Rainer Dahlhaus , Wolfgang Polonik

In this paper, we present a novel approach for local exceptionality detection on time series data. This method provides the ability to discover interpretable patterns in the data, which can be used to understand and predict the progression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-27 Dan Hudson , Travis J. Wiltshire , Martin Atzmueller

We consider the problem of identifying the support of the block signal in a sequence when both the length and the location of the block signal are unknown. The multivariate version of this problem is also considered, in which we try to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-21 Jiyao Kou

We study a minimal shell model for the advection of a passive scalar by a Gaussian time correlated velocity field. The anomalous scaling properties of the white noise limit are studied analytically. The effect of the time correlations are…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 K. H. Andersen , P. Muratore-Ginanneschi

We study forecasting capabilities of the methods of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Local Approximation (LA). A practical implementation of these methods to several time series is described. Details of the algorithms of these methods…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Loskutov , I. Istomin , O. Kotlyarov

We consider a general class of statistical experiments, in which an $n$-dimensional centered Gaussian random variable is observed and its covariance matrix is the parameter of interest. The covariance matrix is assumed to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-17 Cristina Butucea , Alexander Meister , Angelika Rohde

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is a common approach to account for correlated noise in exoplanet time series, particularly for transmission and emission spectroscopy. This analysis has typically been performed for each wavelength…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-06-05 Mark Fortune , Neale P. Gibson , Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Thomas M. Evans-Soma , Cathal Maguire , Swaetha Ramkumar

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Sagnik Bhadury , Riten Mitra , Jeremy T. Gaskins

This work addresses the problem of graph learning from data following a Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) with a time-varying mean. Graphical Lasso (GL), the standard method for estimating sparse precision matrices, assumes that the observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Samuel Rey , Ernesto Curbelo , Luca Martino , Fernando Llorente , Antonio G. Marques

Identifying anomalous patterns in real-world data is essential for understanding where, when, and how systems deviate from their expected dynamics. Yet methods that separately consider the anomalousness of each individual data point have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-05 William Herlands , Edward McFowland , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Daniel B. Neill

This article introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-01 Yakun Wang , Zeda Li , Scott A. Bruce

We introduce a signal processing model for signals in non-white noise, where the exact noise spectrum is a priori unknown. The model is based on a Student's t distribution and constitutes a natural generalization of the widely used normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-13 Christian Röver , Renate Meyer , Nelson Christensen

Transmission spectroscopy, which consists of measuring the wavelength-dependent absorption of starlight by a planet's atmosphere during a transit, is a powerful probe of atmospheric composition. However, the expected signal is typically…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-30 N. P. Gibson , S. Aigrain , S. Roberts , T. M. Evans , M. Osborne , F. Pont

A major goal of ongoing and future cosmological surveys of the large-scale structure is to measure local type primordial non-Gaussianity in the galaxy power spectrum through the scale-dependent bias. General relativistic effects have been…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-05 Chris Addis , Sêcloka L. Guedezounme , Jessie Hammond , Chris Clarkson , Federico Montano , Stefano Camera , Sheean Jolicoeur , Roy Maartens

We consider a class of one-dimensional nonselfadjoint semiclassical pseudo-differential operators, subject to small random perturbations, and study the statistical properties of their (discrete) spectra, in the semiclassical limit $h\to 0$.…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Stéphane Nonnenmacher , Martin Vogel

Causal discovery from multivariate time series is challenging when causal effects may occur both across time and within the same sampling interval. This issue is especially important in applications such as neuroscience, where the sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 SeyedSina Seyedi HasanAbadi , Fahimeh Arab , Erfan Nozari , AmirEmad Ghassami

Graphical models are commonly used to represent conditional dependence relationships between variables. There are multiple methods available for exploring them from high-dimensional data, but almost all of them rely on the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-22 Tianxi Li , Cheng Qian , Elizaveta Levina , Ji Zhu

In this work we review the application of the theory of Gaussian processes to the modeling of noise in pulsar-timing data analysis, and we derive various useful and optimized representations for the likelihood expressions that are needed in…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-11-19 Rutger van Haasteren , Michele Vallisneri

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) as models for astronomical time series datasets has recently become almost ubiquitous, given their ease of use and flexibility. GPs excel in particular at marginalization over the stellar signal in cases…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-09-08 Rodrigo Luger , Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Christina Hedges

This article introduces the class of continuous time locally stationary wavelet processes. Continuous time models enable us to properly provide scale-based time series models for irregularly-spaced observations for the first time, while…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Henry Antonio Palasciano , Marina I. Knight , Guy P. Nason