Related papers: Abstract Hidden Markov Models: a monadic account o…

The conformational kinetics of enzymes can be reliably revealed when they are governed by Markovian dynamics. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are appropriate especially in the case of conformational states that are hardly distinguishable.…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs) are two popular techniques for modeling sequential data. Inference algorithms designed over CRFs and HMMs allow estimation of the state sequence given the observations. In…

Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer…

As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…

The problem of reducing a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to one of smaller dimension that exactly reproduces the same marginals is tackled by using a system-theoretic approach. Realization theory tools are extended to HMMs by leveraging suitable…

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…

Labeling of sequential data is a prevalent meta-problem for a wide range of real world applications. While the first-order Hidden Markov Models (HMM) provides a fundamental approach for unsupervised sequential labeling, the basic model does…

Mixtures of Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs) are frequently used for clustering of sequential data. An important aspect of MHMMs, as of any clustering approach, is that they can be interpretable, allowing for novel insights to be gained from…

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…

This report describes a new technique for inducing the structure of Hidden Markov Models from data which is based on the general `model merging' strategy (Omohundro 1992). The process begins with a maximum likelihood HMM that directly…

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…

Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…

In pursuit of explainability, we develop generative models for sequential data. The proposed models provide state-of-the-art classification results and robust performance for speech phone classification. We combine modern neural networks…

This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…

Determining entropy rates of stochastic processes is a fundamental and difficult problem, with closed-form solutions known only for specific cases. This paper pushes the state-of-the-art by solving the problem for Hidden Markov Models…

We address the problem of detecting an anomalous process among a large number of processes. At each time t, normal processes are in state zero (normal state), while the abnormal process may be in either state zero (normal state) or state…

We are interested in assessing the order of a finite-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with the only two assumptions that the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and that the density functions of the emission…

In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…

This paper gives a method for computing distributions associated with patterns in the state sequence of a hidden Markov model, conditional on observing all or part of the observation sequence. Probabilities are computed for very general…