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Leave-one-out (LOO) prediction provides a principled, data-dependent measure of generalization, yet guarantees in fully transductive settings remain poorly understood beyond specialized models. We introduce Median of Level-Set Aggregation…
We consider the problem of variance reduction in randomized controlled trials, through the use of covariates correlated with the outcome but independent of the treatment. We propose a machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect…
Penalized logistic regression methods are frequently used to investigate the relationship between a binary outcome and a set of explanatory variables. The model performance can be assessed by measures such as the concordance statistic…
To maximize clinical benefit, clinicians routinely tailor treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient, where individualized treatment rules are needed and are of significant research interest to statisticians. In the…
In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive empirical likelihood-based approach for treatment effect estimation and inference, which overcomes the obstacle of the traditional empirical likelihood-based approaches in the high-dimensional…
Individual-specific, time-constant, random effects are often used to model dependence and/or to account for omitted covariates in regression models for longitudinal responses. Longitudinal studies have known a huge and widespread use in the…
Regression is a fundamental tool in scientific research. Ordinary least squares (OLS), one of the most widely used regression methods, enjoys several desirable properties, including the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) property. It is…
The split-plot design assigns different interventions at the whole-plot and sub-plot levels, respectively, and induces a group structure on the final treatment assignments. A common strategy is to use the OLS fit of the outcome on the…
Balancing influential covariates is crucial for valid treatment comparisons in clinical studies. While covariate-adaptive randomization is commonly used to achieve balance, its performance can be inadequate when the number of baseline…
In clinical trials, there is potential to improve precision and reduce the required sample size by appropriately adjusting for baseline variables in the statistical analysis. This is called covariate adjustment. Despite recommendations by…
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for investigating causal relationships, with comparisons of potential outcomes under different treatment groups used to estimate treatment effects. However, outcomes with heavy-tailed…
Covariate adjustment has the potential to increase power in the analysis of randomised trials, but mis-specification of the adjustment model could cause error. We explore what error is possible when the adjustment model omits a covariate by…
Historical data about disease outcomes can be integrated into the analysis of clinical trials in many ways. We build on existing literature that uses prognostic scores from a predictive model to increase the efficiency of treatment effect…
Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson…
Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However,…
In most nonrandomized observational studies, differences between treatment groups may arise not only due to the treatment but also because of the effect of confounders. Therefore, causal inference regarding the treatment effect is not as…
Covariate adjustment aims to improve the statistical efficiency of randomized trials by incorporating information from baseline covariates. Popular methods for covariate adjustment include analysis of covariance for continuous endpoints and…
Background: It has long been advised to account for baseline covariates in the analysis of confirmatory randomised trials, with the main statistical justifications being that this increases power and, when a randomisation scheme balanced…
The survey experiment is widely used in economics and social sciences to evaluate the effects of treatments or programs. In a standard population-based survey experiment, the experimenter randomly draws experimental units from a target…
We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to…