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We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-by-measure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-04 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung

We use one-step conditional risk mappings to formulate a risk averse version of a total cost problem on a controlled Markov process in discrete time infinite horizon. The nonnegative one step costs are assumed to be lower semi-continuous…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-05 Kerem Ugurlu

This paper studies distributionally robust optimization for a rich class of risk measures with ambiguity sets defined by $\phi$-divergences. The risk measures are allowed to be non-linear in probabilities, are represented by Choquet…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Guanyu Jin , Roger J. A. Laeven , Dick den Hertog

In this paper, we study properties of certain risk measures associated with acceptance sets. These sets describe regulatory preconditions that have to be fulfilled by financial institutions to pass a given acceptance test. If the financial…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-07 Marcel Marohn , Christiane Tammer

Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho

The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-18 Irina Penner , Anthony Reveillac

Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Adrián Detavernier , Jasper De Bock

In this article, we propose a novel characterization of law-invariant and coherent risk measures, based on a generalized optimal transport problem in which the second marginal of the admissible plans is not fixed, but required to lie within…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Riccardo Bonalli , Benoît Bonnet-Weill , Laurent Pfeiffer

We consider the worst-case expectation of a permutation invariant ambiguity set of discrete distributions as a proxy-cost for data-driven expected risk minimization. For this framework, we coin the term ordered risk minimization to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-19 Peter Coppens , Panagiotis Patrinos

Since risky positions in multivariate portfolios can be offset by various choices of capital requirements that depend on the exchange rules and related transaction costs, it is natural to assume that the risk measures of random vectors are…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-07-12 Ignacio Cascos , Ilya Molchanov

This paper proposes risk-averse and risk-agnostic formulations to robust design in which solutions that satisfy the system requirements for a set of scenarios are pursued. These scenarios, which correspond to realizations of uncertain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Luis G. Crespo , Bret Stanford , Natalia Alexandrov

Risk management often plays an important role in decision making under uncertainty. In quantitative risk management, assessing and optimizing risk metrics requires efficient computing techniques and reliable theoretical guarantees. In this…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Zhaolin Hu

Systematic investment strategies are exposed to a subtle but pervasive vulnerability: the progressive erosion of their effectiveness as market regimes change. Traditional risk measures, designed to capture volatility or drawdowns, overlook…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-10 Nolan Alexander , Frank Fabozzi

Several researchers have proposed minimisation of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a method to quantise probability measures, i.e., to approximate a target distribution by a representative point set. We consider sequential algorithms that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-15 Onur Teymur , Jackson Gorham , Marina Riabiz , Chris. J. Oates

Decision making under uncertain environments in the maximization of expected reward while minimizing its risk is one of the ubiquitous problems in many subjects. Here, we introduce a novel problem setting in stochastic bandit optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Shunta Nonaga , Koji Tabata , Yuta Mizuno , Tamiki Komatsuzaki

Due to its flexible and pervasive sensing ability, crowdsensing has been extensively studied recently in research communities. However, the fundamental issue of how to meet the requirement of sensing robustness in crowdsensing remains…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-01-28 Yuben Qu , Shaojie Tang , Chao Dong , Peng Li , Song Guo , Chang Tian

We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-bymeasure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Trivikram Dokka , Marc Goerigk , Rahul Roy

Robust and distributionally robust optimization are modeling paradigms for decision-making under uncertainty where the uncertain parameters are only known to reside in an uncertainty set or are governed by any probability distribution from…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Jianzhe Zhen , Daniel Kuhn , Wolfram Wiesemann

In this paper, we consider a situation where a decision maker's (DM's) risk preference can be described by a spectral risk measure (SRM) but there is not a single SRM which can be used to represent the DM's preferences consistently.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Manlan Li , Xiaojiao Tong , Huifu Xu