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This paper introduces the concept of rational countefactuals which is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real) that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-04-09 Tshilidzi Marwala

Due to the increasing use of machine learning in practice it becomes more and more important to be able to explain the prediction and behavior of machine learning models. An instance of explanations are counterfactual explanations which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-19 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Counterfactual explanation methods interpret the outputs of a machine learning model in the form of "what-if scenarios" without compromising the fidelity-interpretability trade-off. They explain how to obtain a desired prediction from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Peyman Rasouli , Ingrid Chieh Yu

Decision making under abnormal conditions is a critical process that involves evaluating the current state and determining the optimal action to restore the system to a normal state at an acceptable cost. However, in such scenarios,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Ruichu Cai , Xi Chen , Jie Qiao , Zijian Li , Yuequn Liu , Wei Chen , Keli Zhang , Jiale Zheng

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qiang Huang , Chuizheng Meng , Defu Cao , Biwei Huang , Yi Chang , Yan Liu

Recent work by Chatzi et al. and Ravfogel et al. has developed, for the first time, a method for generating counterfactuals of probabilistic Large Language Models. Such counterfactuals tell us what would - or might - have been the output of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Sander Beckers

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Sahil Verma , Varich Boonsanong , Minh Hoang , Keegan E. Hines , John P. Dickerson , Chirag Shah

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal analyses of longitudinal data generally assume that the qualitative causal structure relating variables remains invariant over time. In structured systems that transition between qualitatively different states in discrete time steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Ranjani Srinivasan , Jaron Lee , Rohit Bhattacharya , Narges Ahmidi , Ilya Shpitser

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

We propose a new definition of actual cause, using structural equations to model counterfactuals. We show that the definition yields a plausible and elegant account of causation that handles well examples which have caused problems for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Judea Pearl

Treatment strategies are critical in healthcare, particularly when outcomes are subject to censoring. This study introduces the Counterfactual Buckley-James Q-Learning framework, which integrates the Buckley-James method with reinforcement…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Jeongjin Lee , Jong-Min Kim

Training graph classifiers able to distinguish between healthy brains and dysfunctional ones, can help identifying substructures associated to specific cognitive phenotypes. However, the mere predictive power of the graph classifier is of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-06-21 Carlo Abrate , Francesco Bonchi

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either…

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive and straightforward way to explain black-box models and offer algorithmic recourse to individuals. To address the need for plausible explanations, existing work has primarily relied on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Patrick Altmeyer , Mojtaba Farmanbar , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

We derive a formal, decision-based method for comparing the performance of counterfactual treatment regime predictions using the results of experiments that give relevant information on the distribution of treated outcomes. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-24 Michael Gechter , Cyrus Samii , Rajeev Dehejia , Cristian Pop-Eleches

Consider sensitivity analysis to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Data augmentation is a crucial component in unsupervised contrastive learning (CL). It determines how positive samples are defined and, ultimately, the quality of the learned representation. In this work, we open the door to new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Benoit Dufumier , Carlo Alberto Barbano , Robin Louiset , Edouard Duchesnay , Pietro Gori

Counterfactual reasoning, a fundamental aspect of human cognition, involves contemplating alternatives to established facts or past events, significantly enhancing our abilities in planning and decision-making. In light of the advancements…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Letian Zhang , Xiaotong Zhai , Zhongkai Zhao , Yongshuo Zong , Xin Wen , Bingchen Zhao