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We propose a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with a low-rank constraint on the transition matrix. This new model is well suited to predict high-dimensional series that are highly correlated, or that are driven by a small number of hidden…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-17 Pierre Alquier , Karine Bertin , Paul Doukhan , Rémy Garnier

While considerable advances have been made in estimating high-dimensional structured models from independent data using Lasso-type models, limited progress has been made for settings when the samples are dependent. We consider estimating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Igor Melnyk , Arindam Banerjee

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-27 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Luca Onorante

This paper considers estimation and model selection of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR). Conventional quantile regression often yields undesirable crossing quantile curves, violating the monotonicity of quantiles. To address this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Tomohiro Ando , Tadao Hoshino , Ruey Tsay

Sparse Gaussian graphical models characterize sparse dependence relationships between random variables in a network. To estimate multiple related Gaussian graphical models on the same set of variables, we formulate a hierarchical model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-10 Yuancheng Zhu , Rina Foygel Barber

Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-27 Sumanta Basu , Xianqi Li , George Michailidis

Recently, high dimensional vector auto-regressive models (VAR), have attracted a lot of interest, due to novel applications in the health, engineering and social sciences. The presence of temporal dependence poses additional challenges to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Sagnik Halder , George Michailidis

This work addresses the issue of large covariance matrix estimation in high-dimensional statistical analysis. Recently, improved iterative algorithms with positive-definite guarantee have been developed. However, these algorithms cannot be…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-07-29 Fei Wen , Yuan Yang , Peilin Liu , Robert C. Qiu

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Yuefeng Han , Likai Chen , Wei Biao Wu

We improve upon the two-stage sparse vector autoregression (sVAR) method in Davis et al. (2016) by proposing an alternative two-stage modified sVAR method which relies on time series graphical lasso to estimate sparse inverse spectral…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-06 Aramayis Dallakyan , Rakheon Kim , Mohsen Pourahmadi

Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-28 Kenwin Maung

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-27 Yann McLatchie , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , David Kohns , Aki Vehtari

We consider the problem of sparse estimation in a factor analysis model. A traditional estimation procedure in use is the following two-step approach: the model is estimated by maximum likelihood method and then a rotation technique is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-18 Kei Hirose , Michio Yamamoto

This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-21 Laurent Callot , Johannes Tang Kristensen

How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…

We consider the problem of multivariate regression in a setting where the relevant predictors could be shared among different responses. We propose an algorithm which decomposes the coefficient matrix into the product of a long matrix and a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-02 Milad Kharratzadeh , Mark Coates

Generalized Linear Models (GLM) form a wide class of regression and classification models, where prediction is a function of a linear combination of the input variables. For statistical inference in high dimension, sparsity inducing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Mathurin Massias , Samuel Vaiter , Alexandre Gramfort , Joseph Salmon

We propose a new class of nonconvex penalty functions, based on data depth functions, for multitask sparse penalized regression. These penalties quantify the relative position of rows of the coefficient matrix from a fixed distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-08 Subhabrata Majumdar , Snigdhansu Chatterjee

Support vector machines (SVMs) with sparsity-inducing nonconvex penalties have received considerable attentions for the characteristics of automatic classification and variable selection. However, it is quite challenging to solve the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-12 Lei Guan , Linbo Qiao , Dongsheng Li , Tao Sun , Keshi Ge , Xicheng Lu