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In this paper we propose a dimension-reduction strategy in order to improve the performance of importance sampling in high dimension. The idea is to estimate variance terms in a small number of suitably chosen directions. We first prove…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-24 Maxime ElMasri , Jérôme Morio , Florian Simatos

We consider MAP estimators for structured prediction with exponential family models. In particular, we concentrate on the case that efficient algorithms for uniform sampling from the output space exist. We show that under this assumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Shankar Vembu , Thomas Gartner , Mario Boley

We discuss the improvement in the accuracy of a Monte Carlo integration that can be obtained by optimization of the `a-priori weights' of the various channels. These channels may be either the strata in a stratified-sampling approach, or…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-28 R. Kleiss , R. Pittau

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) methods use a set of proposal distributions from which samples are drawn. Each sample is then assigned an importance weight that can be obtained according to different strategies. This work is motivated by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Given the limitations of backpropagation, perturbation-based gradient computation methods have recently gained focus for learning with only forward passes, also referred to as queries. Conventional forward learning consumes enormous queries…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Tao Ren , Zishi Zhang , Jinyang Jiang , Guanghao Li , Zeliang Zhang , Mingqian Feng , Yijie Peng

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Brian M. Sadler , Victor Elvira

We study the statistical complexity of estimating partition functions given sample access to a proposal distribution and an unnormalized density ratio for a target distribution. While partition function estimation is a classical problem,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Adam Block , Abhishek Shetty

We consider the problem of estimating a continuous distribution function $F$, as well as meaningful functions $\tau(F)$ under a large class of loss functions. We obtain best invariant estimators and establish their minimaxity for H\"{o}lder…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-09 Mohammad Jafari Jozani , Alexandre Leblanc , Eric Marchand

We compare estimators of the (essential) supremum and the integral of a function $f$ defined on a measurable space when $f$ may be observed at a sample of points in its domain, possibly with error. The estimators compared vary in their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-04 Larry Goldstein , Yosef Rinott , Marco Scarsini

The marginal likelihood is a central tool for drawing Bayesian inference about the number of components in mixture models. It is often approximated since the exact form is unavailable. A bias in the approximation may be due to an incomplete…

Computation · Statistics 2014-11-14 Jeong Eun Lee , Christian P. Robert

We consider the problem of choosing design parameters to minimize the probability of an undesired rare event that is described through the average of $n$ iid random variables. Since the probability of interest for near optimal design…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-22 Amarjit Budhiraja , Shu Lu , Yang Yu , Quoc Tran-Dinh

This paper presents a tool for addressing a key component in many algorithms for planning robot trajectories under uncertainty: evaluation of the safety of a robot whose actions are governed by a closed-loop feedback policy near a nominal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-05 Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

We study randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) estimation of a multivariate integral where one of the variables takes only a finite number of values. This problem arises when the variable of integration is drawn from a mixture distribution as…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-19 Valerie N. P. Ho , Art B. Owen , Zexin Pan

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Dale Schuurmans , Finnegan Southey

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Quan Zheng , Matthias Zwicker

Importance sampling (IS) is valuable in reducing the variance of Monte Carlo sampling for many areas, including finance, rare event simulation, and Bayesian inference. It is natural and obvious to combine quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-21 Zhijian He , Zhan Zheng , Xiaoqun Wang

Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approximations of conditional densities. This is achieved for events E_{n}:=(f(X_{1})+...+f(X_{n}))\inA_{n} where the summands are i.i.d. and E_{n} is a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-08 Michel Broniatowski , Virgile Caron

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

In this chapter, we discuss recent work on learning sparse approximations to high-dimensional functions on data, where the target functions may be scalar-, vector- or even Hilbert space-valued. Our main objective is to study how the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Ben Adcock , Juan M. Cardenas , Nick Dexter , Sebastian Moraga

Consider a central problem in randomized approximation schemes that use a Monte Carlo approach. Given a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation at most $c…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-18 Mark Huber
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