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The traditional maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is often of limited use in complex high-dimensional data due to the intractability of the underlying likelihood function. Maximum composite likelihood estimation (McLE) avoids full…
Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modelling. Existing methods for uncertainty modelling face a fundamental…
When faced with a small sample from a large universe of possible outcomes, scientists often turn to the venerable Good--Turing estimator. Despite its pedigree, however, this estimator comes with considerable drawbacks, such as the need to…
Sums of of 1-dependent integer-valued random variables are approximated by compound Poisson, negative binomial and Binomial distributions and signed compound Poisson measures. Estimates are obtained for total variation and local metrics.…
The Gibbs sampler is one of the most popular algorithms for inference in statistical models. In this paper, we introduce a herding variant of this algorithm, called herded Gibbs, that is entirely deterministic. We prove that herded Gibbs…
The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…
Gibbs sampling methods are standard tools to perform posterior inference for mixture models. These have been broadly classified into two categories: marginal and conditional methods. While conditional samplers are more widely applicable…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for certain classes of time series models. In particular, we focus upon scenarios where the likelihoods of the observations and parameter are intractable, by which…
We present improved numerical approximations to the exact Poissonian confidence limits for small numbers n of observed events following the approach of Gehrels (1986). Analytic descriptions of all parameters used in the approximations are…
In this paper, we derive an explicit formula for constructing the confidence interval of binomial parameter with guaranteed coverage probability. The formula overcomes the limitation of normal approximation which is asymptotic in nature and…
We approximate the distribution of the sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed Bernoulli random variables using a shifted binomial distribution where the three parameters (the number of trials, the probability of…
Languages for open-universe probabilistic models (OUPMs) can represent situations with an unknown number of objects and iden- tity uncertainty. While such cases arise in a wide range of important real-world appli- cations, existing general…
We give yet another example of the usefulness of working with marginals of multivariate Gibbs distributions (Cerquetti, 2013) in deriving Bayesian nonparametric estimators under Gibbs priors in species sampling problems. Here in particular…
Classification approaches based on the direct estimation and analysis of posterior probabilities will degrade if the original class priors begin to change. We prove that a unique (up to scale) solution is possible to recover the data…
Gibbs random fields (GRF) are polymorphous statistical models that can be used to analyse different types of dependence, in particular for spatially correlated data. However, when those models are faced with the challenge of selecting a…
For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…
We give an elementary proof of the fact that a binomial random variable $X$ with parameters $n$ and $0.29/n \le p < 1$ with probability at least $1/4$ strictly exceeds its expectation. We also show that for $1/n \le p < 1 - 1/n$, $X$…
This paper deals with the problem of quantifying the approximation a probability measure by means of an empirical (in a wide sense) random probability measure, depending on the first n terms of a sequence of random elements. In Section 2,…
The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution is a natural two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution which has received some attention in the statistics literature in recent years by offering flexible generalisations of some…
The study of almost surely discrete random probability measures is an active line of research in Bayesian nonparametrics. The idea of assuming interaction across the atoms of the random probability measure has recently spurred significant…