Related papers: "i have a feeling trump will win..................…

The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume of scholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years a new approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter data to…

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the…

This paper describes a Naive-Bayesian predictive model for 2016 U.S. Presidential Election based on Twitter data. We use 33,708 tweets gathered since December 16, 2015 until February 29, 2016. We introduce a simpler data preprocessing…

This paper describes the analysis of quantitative characteristics of frequent sets and association rules in the posts of Twitter microblogs related to different event discussions. For the analysis, we used a theory of frequent sets,…

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving…

This paper introduces TwitterPaul, a system designed to make use of Social Media data to help to predict game outcomes for the 2010 FIFA World Cup tournament. To this end, we extracted over 538K mentions to football games from a large…

Consider a person trying to spread an important message on a social network. He/she can spend hours trying to craft the message. Does it actually matter? While there has been extensive prior work looking into predicting popularity of…

Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can…

U.S. Presidential Election forecasting has been a research interest for several decades. Currently, election prediction consists of two main approaches: traditional models that incorporate economic data and poll surveys, and models that…

In this work, we tackle the problem of predicting entity popularity on Twitter based on the news cycle. We apply a supervised learn- ing approach and extract four types of features: (i) signal, (ii) textual, (iii) sentiment and (iv)…

Can we predict the future popularity of a song, movie or tweet? Recent work suggests that although it may be hard to predict an item's popularity when it is first introduced, peeking into its early adopters and properties of their social…

Prediction is a complex notion, and different predictors (such as people, computer programs, and probabilistic theories) can pursue very different goals. In this paper I will review some popular kinds of prediction and argue that the theory…

Elections are the backbone of any democratic country, where voters elect the candidates as their representatives. The emergence of social networking sites has provided a platform for political parties and their candidates to connect with…

Social media has emerged to be a popular platform for people to express their viewpoints on political protests like the Arab Spring. Millions of people use social media to communicate and mobilize their viewpoints on protests. Hence, it is…

Our paper studies the predictability of online speech -- that is, how well language models learn to model the distribution of user generated content on X (previously Twitter). We define predictability as a measure of the model's…

How popular a topic or an opinion appears to be in a network can be very different from its actual popularity. For example, in an online network of a social media platform, the number of people who mention a topic in their posts---i.e., its…

Nowcasting based on social media text promises to provide unobtrusive and near real-time predictions of community-level outcomes. These outcomes are typically regarding people, but the data is often aggregated without regard to users in the…

There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we…

Predicting X from Twitter is a popular fad within the Twitter research subculture. It seems both appealing and relatively easy. Among such kind of studies, electoral prediction is maybe the most attractive, and at this moment there is a…

Discovering the stances of media outlets and influential people on current, debatable topics is important for social statisticians and policy makers. Many supervised solutions exist for determining viewpoints, but manually annotating…