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We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model is a variant of the Hawkes self-exciting process and exhibits similar clustering but without the restriction that the component…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-27 Frederic Schoenberg , Marc Hoffmann , Ryan Harrigan

We consider the learning of multi-agent Hawkes processes, a model containing multiple Hawkes processes with shared endogenous impact functions and different exogenous intensities. In the framework of stochastic maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Hongteng Xu , Xu Chen , Lawrence Carin

This paper is devoted to the study of the number of customers in infinite-server systems driven by Hawkes processes. In these systems, the self-exciting arrival process is assumed to be represented by a Hawkes process and the self-exciting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Dharmaraja Selvamuthu , Paola Tardelli

This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Raviar Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

Regime-switching processes contain two components: continuous component and discrete component, which can be used to describe a continuous dynamical system in a random environment. Such processes have many different properties than general…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Jinghai Shao

Conventional joint modeling approaches generally characterize the relationship between longitudinal biomarkers and discrete event occurrences within terminal, recurring or competing risk settings, thereby offering a limited representation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Félix Laplante , Christophe Ambroise

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-08 E. Bacry , J. F Muzy

The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Y. Belopolskaya , Y. Suhov

In this paper the class of mixed renewal processes (MRPs for short) with mixing parameter a random vector from \cite{lm6z3} (enlarging Huang's \cite{hu} original class) is replaced by the strictly more comprising class of all extended MRPs…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-20 N. D. Macheras , S. M. Tzaninis

We present a stability study of the class of multivariate self-excited Hawkes point processes, that can model natural and social systems, including earthquakes, epileptic seizures and the dynamics of neuron assemblies, bursts of exchanges…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

An infinite system of point particles placed in $\mathds{R}^d$ is studied. The particles are of two types; they perform random walks in the course of which those of distinct types repel each other. The interaction of this kind induces an…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-18 Yuri Kozitsky , Michael Röckner

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Anindya Goswami , Subhamay Saha , Ravishankar Kapildev Yadav

We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-24 Colin Reimer Dawson , Chaofan Huang , Clayton T. Morrison

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva