Related papers: An Alternative Estimation Method of a Time-Varying…
The aim of this article is to present a novel parallelization method for temporal Gaussian process (GP) regression problems. The method allows for solving GP regression problems in logarithmic O(log N) time, where N is the number of time…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
In real data analysis with structural equation modeling, data are unlikely to be exactly normally distributed. If we ignore the non-normality reality, the parameter estimates, standard error estimates, and model fit statistics from normal…
Latent variable models are powerful tools for modeling complex phenomena involving in particular partially observed data, unobserved variables or underlying complex unknown structures. Inference is often difficult due to the latent…
In additive models with many nonparametric components, a number of regularized estimators have been proposed and proven to attain various error bounds under different combinations of sparsity and fixed smoothness conditions. Some of these…
We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the…
In this work, a new class of stochastic gradient algorithm is developed based on $q$-calculus. Unlike the existing $q$-LMS algorithm, the proposed approach fully utilizes the concept of $q$-calculus by incorporating time-varying $q$…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Hazard models are the most commonly used tool to analyse time-to-event data. If more than one time scale is relevant for the event under study, models are required that can incorporate the dependence of a hazard along two (or more) time…
The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
We consider the problem of breaking a multivariate (vector) time series into segments over which the data is well explained as independent samples from a Gaussian distribution. We formulate this as a covariance-regularized maximum…
The lasso has been studied extensively as a tool for estimating the coefficient vector in the high-dimensional linear model; however, considerably less is known about estimating the error variance in this context. In this paper, we propose…
This paper presents a new prediction model for time series data by integrating a time-varying Geometric Brownian Motion model with a pricing mechanism used in financial engineering. Typical time series models such as Auto-Regressive…
In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…
We develop a general framework for state estimation in systems modeled with noise-polluted continuous time dynamics and discrete time noisy measurements. Our approach is based on maximum likelihood estimation and employs the calculus of…
We propose a partially linear additive Gaussian graphical model (PLA-GGM) for the estimation of associations between random variables distorted by observed confounders. Model parameters are estimated using an $L_1$-regularized maximal…
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…
This paper considers generalized least squares (GLS) estimation for linear panel data models. By estimating the large error covariance matrix consistently, the proposed feasible GLS (FGLS) estimator is more efficient than the ordinary least…
Mixed-effect models are widely used for the analysis of correlated data such as longitudinal data and repeated measures. In this article, we study an approach to the nonparametric estimation of mixed-effect models. We consider models with…