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Semiparametric forecasting and filtering are introduced as a method of addressing model errors arising from unresolved physical phenomena. While traditional parametric models are able to learn high-dimensional systems from small data sets,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-17 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

The use of Kalman filtering, as well as its nonlinear extensions, for the estimation of system variables and parameters has played a pivotal role in many fields of scientific inquiry where observations of the system are restricted to a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-02-15 Joseph Arthur , Adam Attarian , Franz Hamilton , Hien Tran

For oceanographic applications, probabilistic forecasts typically have to deal with i) high-dimensional complex models, and ii) very sparse spatial observations. In search-and-rescue operations at sea, for instance, the short-term…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-15 Florian Beiser , Håvard Heitlo Holm , Jo Eidsvik

Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 E. Calvello , J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , P. Monmarché , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

Data assimilation combines information from models, measurements, and priors to estimate the state of a dynamical system such as the atmosphere. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a family of ensemble-based data assimilation approaches…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-12-09 Ahmed Attia , Adrian Sandu

The unscented Kalman filter is an algorithm capable of handling nonlinear scenarios. Uncertainty in process noise covariance may decrease the filter estimation performance or even lead to its divergence. Therefore, it is important to adjust…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amit Levy , Itzik Klein

We address data assimilation for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems via the so-called \emph{model reference adaptive system}. Continuing our theoretical developments in \cite{Tram_Kaltenbacher_2021}, we deliver the first practical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Benedikt Kaltenbach , Christian Aarset , Tram Thi Ngoc Nguyen

A data-driven method for improving the correlation estimation in serial ensemble Kalman filters is introduced. The method finds a linear map that transforms, at each assimilation cycle, the poorly estimated sample correlation into an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Michèle De La Chevrotière , John Harlim

Inferring latent dynamics from multivariate time-series defined over topological cell complexes is crucial for capturing the complex, higher-order interactions inherent in real-world systems such as in water, sensor, and transportation…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-21 Chengen Liu , Rohan Money , Ting Gao , Mohammad Sabbaqi , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano , Elvin Isufi

Data assimilation, defined as the fusion of data with preexisting knowledge, is particularly suited to elucidating underlying phenomena from noisy/insufficient observations. Although this approach has been widely used in diverse fields,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-08-18 Lara Escuain-Poole , Jordi Garcia-Ojalvo , Antonio J. Pons

Working with a two-stage ice sheet model, we explore how statistical data assimilation methods can be used to improve predictions of glacier melt and relatedly, sea level rise. We find that the EnKF improves model runs initialized using…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-23 Emily Corcoran , Logan Knudsen , Talea Mayo , Hannah Park-Kaufmann , Alexander Robel

We propose closed-form conditional diffusion models for data assimilation. Diffusion models use data to learn the score function (defined as the gradient of the log-probability density of a data distribution), allowing them to generate new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Brianna Binder , Agnimitra Dasgupta , Assad Oberai

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-08 Zixiang Xiong , Siming Liang , Feng Bao , Guannan Zhang , Hristo G. Chipilski

The potential for data-driven applications to scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows is assessed herein. Multigrid sequential data assimilation algorithms have been used to calibrate solvers for Large Eddy Simulation for the…

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-12 Elizabeth Hou , Earl Lawrence , Alfred O. Hero

Several variations of the Kalman filter algorithm, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), are widely used in science and engineering applications. In this paper, we introduce two algorithms of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Wei Kang , Liang Xu

Data assimilation combines information from physical observations and numerical simulation results to obtain better estimates of the state and parameters of a physical system. A wide class of physical systems of interest have solutions that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Amit N. Subrahmanya , Adrian Sandu

Complex nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in many areas. Recovering unobserved state variables is an important topic for the data assimilation of turbulent systems. In this article, an efficient continuous in time data…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-11-03 Nan Chen , Yuchen Li , Evelyn Lunasin

This work introduces a new, distributed implementation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that allows for non-sequential assimilation of large datasets in high-dimensional problems. The traditional EnKF algorithm is computationally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-23 Cédric Travelletti , Jörg Franke , David Ginsbourger , Stefan Brönnimann

Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Andrea Nóvoa , Alberto Racca , Luca Magri