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Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

We present a new method for simulating Markovian jump processes with time-dependent transitions rates, which avoids the transformation of random numbers by inverting time integrals over the rates. It relies on constructing a sequence of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-20 Viktor Holubec , Petr Chvosta , Mario Einax , Philipp Maass

Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique for efficient estimation of rare-event probabilities by Monte Carlo. In standard importance sampling schemes, the system is simulated using an a priori fixed change of measure suggested…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paul Dupuis , Hui Wang

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-08 Jim Griffin , Krys Latuszynski , Mark Steel

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Tobias Schwedes , Ben Calderhead

We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 David P. Morton , Oscar Dowson , Bernardo K. Pagnoncelli

Markov automata combine non-determinism, probabilistic branching, and exponentially distributed delays. This compositional variant of continuous-time Markov decision processes is used in reliability engineering, performance evaluation and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-05-11 Tim Quatmann , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Based on the principles of importance sampling and resampling, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) encompasses a large set of powerful techniques dealing with complex stochastic dynamic systems. Many of these systems possess strong memory, with…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-22 Ming Lin , Rong Chen , Jun S. Liu

Parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) algorithms generate clouds of proposals at each step to efficiently resolve a target probability distribution. We build a rigorous foundational framework for pMCMC algorithms that situates these…

Various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are studied to improve upon random walk Metropolis sampling, for simulation from complex distributions. Examples include Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-19 Zexi Song , Zhiqiang Tan

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method and exhibit its efficiency by simulation and high-dimensional asymptotic theory. Key fact is that our algorithm has a reversible proposal transition kernel,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-22 Kengo Kamatani

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 D. Russell Luke

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

Computation · Statistics 2007-11-02 Ajay Jasra , David A. Stephens , Chris C. Holmes

Bayesian filtering aims at tracking sequentially a hidden process from an observed one. In particular, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques propagate in time weighted trajectories which represent the posterior probability density…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-22 Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries

Hamiltonian dynamics can be used to produce distant proposals for the Metropolis algorithm, thereby avoiding the slow exploration of the state space that results from the diffusive behaviour of simple random-walk proposals. Though…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-30 Radford M. Neal

Discrete time stochastic optimal control problems and Markov decision processes (MDPs), respectively, serve as fundamental models for problems that involve sequential decision making under uncertainty and as such constitute the theoretical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Christian Beck , Arnulf Jentzen , Konrad Kleinberg , Thomas Kruse

Development of exponentially scaling methods has seen great progress in tackling larger systems than previously thought possible. One such technique, full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo, is a useful algorithm that allows…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2016-08-23 Norm M. Tubman , Joonho Lee , Tyler Y. Takeshita , Martin Head-Gordon , K. Birgitta Whaley

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan
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