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The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Nicolas Chopin

Many exact Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been developed for posterior inference in Bayesian nonparametric models which involve infinite-dimensional priors. However, these methods are not generic and special methodology must be…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-22 Jim E. Griffin

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-25 Iain Murray , Matthew M. Graham

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

Non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods often outperform their reversible counterparts in terms of asymptotic variance of ergodic averages and mixing properties. Lifting the state-space (Chen et al., 1999; Diaconis et al., 2000) is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-22 Philippe Gagnon , Arnaud Doucet

Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers produce dependent streams of variates drawn from the limiting distribution of the Markov chain. With this as motivation, we introduce novel univariate kernel density estimators which are appropriate for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-29 Hang J. Kim , Steven N. MacEachern , Yoonsuh Jung

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter learning when the studied model exhibits random discontinuous jumps in behaviour. To facilitate the learning of high dimensional parameter sets, such as those associated to neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-19 John-Joseph Brady , Yuhui Luo , Wenwu Wang , Víctor Elvira , Yunpeng Li

Discrete stochastic processes (DSP) are instrumental for modelling the dynamics of probabilistic systems and have a wide spectrum of applications in science and engineering. DSPs are usually analyzed via Monte Carlo methods since the number…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-08-17 Carsten Blank , Daniel K. Park , Francesco Petruccione

Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-28 Saifuddin Syed , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-28 Lukáš Adam , Martin Branda

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

"Particle methods" are sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, typically involving importance sampling, that are used to estimate and sample from joint and marginal densities from a collection of a, presumably increasing, number of random…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-17 J. N. Corcoran , D. Jennings

Density tempering (also called density annealing) is a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference for general state models; it is an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. When applied to state space models, it moves a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-05 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , Minh Ngoc Tran

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Anastasis Georgoulas , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

In this paper, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the error of sampling from a target density using three schemes of discretized Langevin diffusions. The first scheme is the Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm, the Euler…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Arnak S. Dalalyan , Avetik Karagulyan , Lionel Riou-Durand

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-30 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Licio Romao , Mert Pilanci , Alessandro Abate , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-16 Marco Fraccaro , Ulrich Paquet , Ole Winther

The Reversible Jump algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian estimation and model selection. A generalized multiple-try version of this algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-14 S. Pandolfi , F. Bartolucci , N. Friel
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