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Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2$^\circ$C.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-06-29 J. -F. Mercure , A. Lam , S. Billington , H. Pollitt

This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-09 H. Pollitt , J. -F. Mercure

Climate change poses an existential threat, necessitating effective climate policies to enact impactful change. Decisions in this domain are incredibly complex, involving conflicting entities and evidence. In the last decades, policymakers…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-29 James Rudd-Jones , Fiona Thendean , María Pérez-Ortiz

Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider…

General Economics · Economics 2023-08-21 Christopher J. Smith , Alaa Al Khourdajie , Pu Yang , Doris Folini

Climate change is a major global challenge today. To assess how policies may lead to mitigation, economists have developed Integrated Assessment Models, however, most of the equilibrium based models have faced heavy critiques. Agent-based…

General Economics · Economics 2023-01-23 Karl Naumann-Woleske

Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , A. Stephen Morse , Ming Cao

With success on controlled tasks, generative models are being increasingly applied to humanitarian applications [1,2]. In this paper, we focus on the evaluation of a conditional generative model that illustrates the consequences of climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-23 Sharon Zhou , Alexandra Luccioni , Gautier Cosne , Michael S. Bernstein , Yoshua Bengio

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…

General Economics · Economics 2020-10-20 Yongyang Cai

Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-02 Stefano Castruccio , Michael L. Stein

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-03-23 J. -F. Mercure , H. Pollitt , A. M. Bassi , J. E Viñuales , N. R. Edwards

Policy targets evolve faster than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Shahine Bouabid , Andre Nogueira Souza , Raffaele Ferrari

Understanding how policy language evolves over time is critical for assessing global responses to complex challenges such as climate change. Temporal analysis helps stakeholders, including policymakers and researchers, to evaluate past…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Rafiu Adekoya Badekale , Adewale Akinfaderin

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are pivotal tools that synthesize knowledge from climate science, economics, and policy to evaluate the interactions between human activities and the climate system. They serve as essential instruments…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-04 Yongyang Cai

Climate Change is an incredibly complicated problem that humanity faces. When many variables interact with each other, it can be difficult for humans to grasp the causes and effects of the very large-scale problem of climate change. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Theodore Wolf

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-11-11 J. F. Mercure , P. Salas , A. Foley , U. Chewpreecha , H. Pollitt , P. B. Holden , N. R. Edwards

Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, along with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-24 Xiaomeng Cui , Bulat Gafarov , Dalia Ghanem , Todd Kuffner

To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-10 Doris Folini , Felix Kübler , Aleksandra Malova , Simon Scheidegger

Climate policy scenario generation and evaluation have traditionally relied on integrated assessment models (IAMs) and expert-driven qualitative analysis. These methods enable stakeholders, such as policymakers and researchers, to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Rafiu Adekoya Badekale , Adewale Akinfaderin

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Graham Clyne , Julia Kaltenborn , Peer Nowack , Claire Monteleoni , Anasatase Charantonis

Climate change demands effective legislative action to mitigate its impacts. This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) to understand the progression of climate policy from announcement to adoption, focusing on policies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Patricia West , Michelle WL Wan , Alexander Hepburn , Edwin Simpson , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Jeffrey N Clark
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