Related papers: Periodically stationary multivariate autoregressiv…
We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…
We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models (McGLMs), designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial…
Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…
The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
Conditions are obtained for a Gaussian vector autoregressive time series of order $k$, VAR($k$), to have univariate margins that are autoregressive of order $k$ or lower-dimensional margins that are also VAR($k$). This can lead to…
The univariate integer-valued time series has been extensively studied, but literature on multivariate integer-valued time series models is quite limited and the complex correlation structure among the multivariate integer-valued time…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
We introduce a general class of autoregressive models for studying the dynamic of multivariate binary time series with stationary exogenous covariates. Using a high-level set of assumptions, we show that existence of a stationary path for…
Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Graphical interaction models have become an important tool for analysing multivariate time series. In these models, the interrelationships among the components of a time series are described by undirected graphs in which the vertices depict…
This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
We introduce and explore a new class of stationary time series models for variance matrices based on a constructive definition exploiting inverse Wishart distribution theory. The main class of models explored is a novel class of stationary,…
Prediction is a key issue in time series analysis. Just as classical mean regression models, classical autoregressive methods, yielding L$^2$ point-predictions, provide rather poor predictive summaries; a much more informative approach is…
Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…