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Related papers: Reduced-form framework under model uncertainty

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With the rise of emerging risks, model uncertainty poses a fundamental challenge in the insurance industry, making robust pricing a first-order question. This paper investigates how insurers' robustness preferences shape competitive…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-20 Shunzhi Pang

Existing approaches to asset-pricing under model-uncertainty adapt classical utility-maximization frameworks and seek theoretical comprehensiveness. We move toward practice by considering binary model-risks and by emphasizing 'constraints'…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-10 Ken Kangda Wren

To improve the predictive capacity of system models in the input-output sense, this paper presents a framework for model updating via learning of modeling uncertainties in locally (and thus also in globally) Lipschitz nonlinear systems.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-11 Farhad Ghanipoor , Carlos Murguia , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Nathan van de Wouw

We pursue robust approach to pricing and hedging in mathematical finance. We consider a continuous time setting in which some underlying assets and options, with continuous paths, are available for dynamic trading and a further set of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-07 Zhaoxu Hou , Jan Obloj

We investigate pricing-hedging duality for American options in discrete time financial models where some assets are traded dynamically and others, e.g. a family of European options, only statically. In the first part of the paper we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-04-11 Anna Aksamit , Shuoqing Deng , Jan Obłój , Xiaolu Tan

Sublinear expectations for uncertain processes have received a lot of attention recently, particularly methods to extend a downward-continuous sublinear expectation on the bounded finitary functions to one on the non-finitary functions. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-05 Alexander Erreygers

In a discrete-time financial market, a generalized duality is established for model-free superhedging, given marginal distributions of the underlying asset. Contrary to prior studies, we do not require contingent claims to be upper…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-17 Arash Fahim , Yu-Jui Huang , Saeed Khalili

We introduce a robust optimization model consisting in a family of perturbation functions giving rise to certain pairs of dual optimization problems in which the dual variable depends on the uncertainty parameter. The interest of our…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-03-14 Nguyen Dinh , Miguel A. Goberna , Marco A. López , Michel Volle

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-08-17 André Chalom , Paulo Inácio de Knegt López de Prado

We consider the pricing of derivatives in a setting with trading restrictions, but without any probabilistic assumptions on the underlying model, in discrete and continuous time. In particular, we assume that European put or call options…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-09 Alexander M. G. Cox , Zhaoxu Hou , Jan Obloj

We investigate asymmetry of information in the context of robust approach to pricing and hedging of financial derivatives. We consider two agents, one who only observes the stock prices and another with some additional information, and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-02 Anna Aksamit , Zhaoxu Hou , Jan Obłój

Models necessarily capture only parts of a reality. Prediction models aim at capturing a future reality. In this paper we address the question of how the future is constructed (or: imagined) in an investment context where market…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-24 Matthias J. Feiler , Thibaut Ajdler

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester , Mario Šikić

We develop a novel application of hybrid information divergences to analyze uncertainty in steady-state subsurface flow problems. These hybrid information divergences are non-intrusive, goal-oriented uncertainty quantification tools that…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Eric Joseph Hall , Markos A. Katsoulakis

We study pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for a class of Markov processes which we call generalized affine processes and which includes the Black-Scholes model as well as the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-30 Eva Lütkebohmert , Thorsten Schmidt , Julian Sester

With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-29 Erhan Bayraktar , Gu Wang

The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-14 Frank Gehmlich , Thorsten Schmidt

Approximating time-varying unobserved heterogeneity by discrete types has become increasingly popular in economics. Yet, provably valid post-clustering inference for target parameters in models that do not impose an exact group structure is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-20 Jad Beyhum , Martin Mugnier

Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 David Criens

We introduce a framework for uncertainty estimation that both describes and extends many existing methods. We consider typical hyperparameters involved in classical training as random variables and marginalise them out to capture various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Francesco Farina , Lawrence Phillips , Nicola J Richmond