Related papers: Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail …

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…

We propose a Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence directly from observed joint success frequencies across founder, geography, and market attributes. Holding marginal deal success probabilities fixed, deal-level…

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…

Latent factor GARCH models are difficult to estimate using Bayesian methods because standard Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers produce slowly mixing and inefficient draws from the posterior distributions of the model parameters. This paper…

This project introduces the GNAR-HARX model, which combines Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) structure with Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) dynamics and exogenous predictors such as implied volatility. The model is designed for…

Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order…

In this paper a new lifetime distribution, which is called the exponentiated Weibull-geometric (EWG) distribution, is introduced. This new distribution obtained by compounding the exponentiated Weibull and geometric distributions. The EWG…

In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…

This paper focuses on modelling loss reserving to pay outstanding claims. As the amount liable on any given claim is not known until settlement, we propose a flexible model via heavy-tailed and skewed distributions to deal with outstanding…

This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…

We propose to integrate weapon system features (such as weapon system manufacturer, deployment time and location, storage time and location, etc.) into a parameterized Cox-Weibull [1] reliability model via a neural network, like DeepSurv…

In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…

In this paper, we introduce a new four-parameter generalization of the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution, called the exponentiated Weibull-logarithmic (EWL) distribution, which obtained by compounding EW and logarithmic distributions.…

We introduce and document a class of probability distributions, called bilateral generalized inverse Gaussian (BGIG) distributions, that are obtained by convolution of two generalized inverse Gaussian distributions supported by the positive…

In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…

We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return…

Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…

This paper introduces a new three-parameters model called the Weibull-G exponential distribution (WGED) distribution which exhibits bathtub-shaped hazard rate. Some of it's statistical properties are obtained including quantile, moments,…