Related papers: Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail …

We propose the notion of sub-Weibull distributions, which are characterised by tails lighter than (or equally light as) the right tail of a Weibull distribution. This novel class generalises the sub-Gaussian and sub-Exponential families to…

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

We show that the Realized GARCH model yields close-form expression for both the Volatility Index (VIX) and the volatility risk premium (VRP). The Realized GARCH model is driven by two shocks, a return shock and a volatility shock, and these…

GARCH models are useful tools in the investigation of phenomena, where volatility changes are prominent features, like most financial data. The parameter estimation via quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and its properties are by now well…

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…

Based on suitable left-truncated or censored data, two flexible classes of $M$-estimations of Weibull tail coefficient are proposed with two additional parameters bounding the impact of extreme contamination. Asymptotic normality with…

Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns. Our model captures well both the time-varying characteristic and the asymmetrical heavy-tail property of financial time…

One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture…

This paper compares the accuracy of tail risk forecasts with a focus on including realized skewness and kurtosis in "additive" and "multiplicative" models. Utilizing a panel of 960 US stocks, we conduct diagnostic tests, employ scoring…

Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…