Related papers: Integral equations, quasi-Monte Carlo methods and …
Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…
We study randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) estimation of a multivariate integral where one of the variables takes only a finite number of values. This problem arises when the variable of integration is drawn from a mixture distribution as…
This report considers the problem of computing the Cramer-Rao bound for the parameters of a Markov random field. Computation of the exact bound is not feasible for most fields of interest because their likelihoods are intractable and have…
When the target parameter for inference is a real-valued, continuous function of probabilities in the $k$-sample multinomial problem, variance estimation may be challenging. In small samples or when the function is nondifferentiable at the…
Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…
We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a…
Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…
Introducing inequality constraints in Gaussian process (GP) models can lead to more realistic uncertainties in learning a great variety of real-world problems. We consider the finite-dimensional Gaussian approach from Maatouk and Bay (2017)…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an established approach for uncertainty quantification and propagation in scientific applications. A key challenge in applying MCMC to scientific domains is computation: the target density of interest is…
This paper proposes a novel robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme for linear discrete-time systems affected by model uncertainty described by interval matrices. The key feature of the proposed method is a bound on the uncertainty…
We prove explicit, i.e., non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis algorithm. The problem is to compute the expectation (or integral) of f with respect to a measure which can be given by a…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…
Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…
We investigate the complexity of covariance matrix estimation for Gibbs distributions based on dependent samples from a Markov chain. We show that when $\pi$ satisfies a Poincar\'e inequality and the chain possesses a spectral gap, we can…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method is a useful numerical tool for pricing and hedging of complex financial derivatives. These problems are usually of high dimensionality and discontinuities. The two factors may significantly deteriorate the…
Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…
Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…
We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…