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In this work, Bayesian inversion with global-local forwards models is used to identify the parameters based on hydraulic fractures in porous media. It is well-known that using Bayesian inversion to identify material parameters is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-11 Nima Noii , Thomas Wick , Amirreza Khodadadian

Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) offers many advantages such as principled uncertainty quantification, small-sample regularisation, and flexible model specification. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods on which…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-20 Haziq Jamil , Håvard Rue

We establish results for the injectivity and injectivity modulo gauge of certain inverse source problems in transport on a simply connected domain with variable index of refraction inducing a 'simple geometry'. The model given by radiative…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Guillaume Bal , François Monard

The inverse problem of multilayer thin-film optical coatings design represents a complex combinatorial-continuous optimization challenge. We present PRISM (Position-encoded Regressive Inverse Spectral Model), a unified decoder-only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Runtian Wang , Renhao Xue , Baige Chen , Hao Wu

Recent deep learning approaches focus on improving quantitative scores of dedicated benchmarks, and therefore only reduce the observation-related (aleatoric) uncertainty. However, the model-immanent (epistemic) uncertainty is less…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-25 Dominik Narnhofer , Alexander Effland , Erich Kobler , Kerstin Hammernik , Florian Knoll , Thomas Pock

Bayesian calibration is widely used for inverse analysis and uncertainty analysis for complex systems in the presence of both computer models and observation data. In the present work, we focus on large-scale fluid-structure interaction…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Shunxiang Cao , Daniel Zhengyu Huang

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

An extension of the well established Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) method for modeling systems under close confinement has been developed. The method overcomes limitations induced by close confinement in systems such as fluids adsorbed in…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-17 V. Sanchez-Gil , E. G. Noya , E. Lomba

This paper focuses on a challenging class of inverse problems that is often encountered in applications. The forward model is a complex non-linear black-box, potentially non-injective, whose outputs cover multiple decades in amplitude.…

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman

Bayesian Optimization is an iterative method, tailored to optimizing expensive black box objective functions. Surrogate models like Gaussian Processes, which are the gold standard in Bayesian Optimization, can be inefficient for inputs with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Sofianos Panagiotis Fotias , Vassilis Gaganis

In Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), the recovery of distributed mechanical parameters from sparse data is often ill-posed, raising critical questions about identifiability and the reliability of inferred states. While deterministic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Tammam Bakeer , Max Herbers , Steffen Marx

To enable safe operations in applications such as rocket combustion chambers, the materials require cooling to avoid material damage. Here, transpiration cooling is a promising cooling technique. Numerous studies investigate possibilities…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Ella Steins , Tan Bui-Thanh , Michael Herty , Siegfried Müller

We address the numerical solution of infinite-dimensional inverse problems in the framework of Bayesian inference. In the Part I companion to this paper (arXiv.org:1308.1313), we considered the linearized infinite-dimensional inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-14 Noemi Petra , James Martin , Georg Stadler , Omar Ghattas

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Hrittik Roy , Marco Miani , Carl Henrik Ek , Philipp Hennig , Marvin Pförtner , Lukas Tatzel , Søren Hauberg

We study how the posterior contraction rate under a Gaussian process (GP) prior depends on the intrinsic dimension of the predictors and the smoothness of the regression function. An open question is whether a generic GP prior that does not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-26 Tao Tang , Nan Wu , Xiuyuan Cheng , David Dunson

We develop a family of mixed finite element methods for a model of nonlinear poroelasticity where, thanks to a rewriting of the constitutive equations, the permeability depends on the total poroelastic stress and on the fluid pressure and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-25 Arbaz Khan , Bishnu P. Lamichhane , Ricardo Ruiz-Baier , Segundo Villa-Fuentes

The Bayesian uncertainty quantification technique has become well established in turbulence modeling over the past few years. However, it is computationally expensive to construct a globally accurate surrogate model for Bayesian inference…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-16 Fanzhi Zeng , Wei Zhang , Jinping Li , Tianxin Zhang , Chao Yan

Determination of polymer molecular weight distribution (MWD) from rheological measurements is desirable due to the ease and low cost of rheometry compared to other methods such as gel permeation chromatography. However, relating MWD to…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-06-19 Nihal Pushkar , Xin C. Yee , Jena McCollum , Brandon Runnels