Related papers: A Bayesian on-off analysis of cosmic ray data
I discuss an issue arising in analyzing data from astronomical surveys: accounting for measurement uncertainties in the properties of individual sources detected in a survey when making inferences about the entire population of sources.…
We demonstrate a measure for the effective number of parameters constrained by a posterior distribution in the context of cosmology. In the same way that the mean of the Shannon information (i.e. the Kullback-Leibler divergence) provides a…
Cosmological experiments often employ Bayesian workflows to derive constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from their data. It has been shown that these constraints can be combined across different probes such as Planck and…
Current and forthcoming cosmological data analyses share the challenge of huge datasets alongside increasingly tight requirements on the precision and accuracy of extracted cosmological parameters. The community is becoming increasingly…
Inverse analysis, such as model calibration, often suffers from a lack of informative data in complex real-world scenarios. The standard remedy, designing new experimental setups, is often costly and time-consuming, while readily available…
The data analysis problem of coherently searching for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data generated by a global network of gravitational-wave observatories has been at the center of research for almost two decades. As data from…
The present paper introduces a fully objective Bayesian analysis to obtain the posterior distribution of an entropy measure. Notably, we consider the gamma distribution, which describes many natural phenomena in physics, engineering, and…
We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…
Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix…
Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…
The quality of CMB observations has improved dramatically in the last few years, and will continue to do so in the coming decade. Over a wide range of angular scales, the uncertainty due to instrumental noise is now small compared to the…
The experimental problem of converting a measured binomial quantity, the fraction of events in a sample that pass a cut, into a physical binomial quantity, the fraction of events originating from a signal source, is described as a system of…
A number of theoretically well-motivated additions to the standard cosmological model predict weak signatures in the form of spatially localized sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations. We present a…
Strong gravitational lenses are unique cosmological probes. These produce multiple images of a single source. Whether a single galaxy, a group or a cluster, extracting cosmologically relevant information requires an accurate modeling of the…
We present a Bayesian data fusion method to approximate a posterior distribution from an ensemble of particle estimates that only have access to subsets of the data. Our approach relies on approximate probabilistic inference of model…
In the last years the direct measurement of cosmic rays received a push forward by the possibility of conducting experiments on board long duration balloon flights, satellites and on the International Space Station. The increase in the…
The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…
A new conceptual approach for examining the origin of cosmic rays is developed by considering the characteristics of particle trajectory distributions in four-dimensional Euclidean space-time. Transformation of an isotropic distribution…
Bayesian reasoning is applied to the data by the ROG Collaboration, in which gravitational wave (g.w.) signals are searched for in a coincidence experiment between Explorer and Nautilus. The use of Bayesian reasoning allows, under well…
We study cosmic shear statistics using the ray-tracing simulation combined with a set of large $N$-body simulations. In this contribution, we first describe our method. Then we show some selected results especially focusing on effects of…