Related papers: Approximating time to extinction for endemic infec…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
In Part 1, we introduced a stochastic model of an infectious disease, based on the BDI (birth and death with immigration) process. We showed that random processes defined by this model can capture the essence of the stochastic, often…
We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
In this paper we analyze continuous-time SIS epidemics subject to arrivals and departures of agents, by using an approximated process based on replacements. In defining the SIS dynamics in an open network, we consider a stochastic setting…
We study the minimum eradication time problem for controlled Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic models that incorporate vaccination control and time-varying infected and recovery rates. Unlike the SIR model with constant rates,…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…
We introduce and discuss a kinetic framework describing the time evolution of the statistical distributions of a population divided into the compartments of susceptible, infectious, recovered, and resistant in the presence of a microbial…
This paper provides the first sample complexity lower bounds for the estimation of simple diffusion models, including the Bass model (used in modeling consumer adoption) and the SIR model (used in modeling epidemics). We show that one…
We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on directed complex networks within the quenched mean-field approximation. Combining results from random matrix theory with an analytic approach to the distribution of fixed-point…
The susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on complex networks can show metastability, resembling an endemic equilibrium. In a general setting, the metastable state may involve a large portion of the network, or it can be…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
This paper examines a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and constant total population. The infection mechanism in the model is described by a nonlinear term of the form…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
We propose a model of the immunity to a cyclical epidemic disease taking account not only of seasonal boosts during the infectious season, but also of residual immunity remaining from one season to the next. The focus is on the exponential…
We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the…