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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Bayesian probability theory is one of the most successful frameworks to model reasoning under uncertainty. Its defining property is the interpretation of probabilities as degrees of belief in propositions about the state of the world…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-04-27 Pedro A. Ortega

Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks is a highly relevant problem which is essential to many applications. The two predominant paradigms to tackle this task are Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles. Despite some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem , Valentin Villecroze , Yixin Wang

Classical Bayesian persuasion assumes that senders fully understand how receivers form beliefs and make decisions--an assumption that rarely holds when receivers possess private information or exhibit non-Bayesian behavior. In this paper,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-11 Heeseung Bang , Andreas A. Malikopoulos

Scenarios requiring humans to choose from multiple seemingly optimal actions are commonplace, however standard imitation learning often fails to capture this behavior. Instead, an over-reliance on replicating expert actions induces…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Hanbit Oh , Hikaru Sasaki , Brendan Michael , Takamitsu Matsubara

A recent approach based on Bayesian inverse planning for the "theory of mind" has shown good performance in modeling human cognition. However, perfect inverse planning differs from human cognition during one kind of complex tasks due to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Ryo Nakahashi , Seiji Yamada

Continual learning aims to learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones. This is especially challenging when one cannot access data from previous tasks and when the model has a fixed capacity. Current regularization-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-21 Sayna Ebrahimi , Mohamed Elhoseiny , Trevor Darrell , Marcus Rohrbach

Modeling social interactions based on individual behavior has always been an area of interest, but prior literature generally presumes rational behavior. Thus, such models may miss out on capturing the effects of biases humans are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-03-11 Nanda Kishore Sreenivas , Shrisha Rao

The human brain copes with sensory uncertainty in accordance with Bayes' rule. However, it is unknown how the brain makes predictions in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Here, we tested whether and how humans take parameter…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-01 Jannes Jegminat , Maya Jastrzebowska , Matt Pachai , Michael Herzog , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We propose the use of Bayesian networks, which provide both a mean value and an uncertainty estimate as output, to enhance the safety of learned control policies under circumstances in which a test-time input differs significantly from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-18 Keuntaek Lee , Kamil Saigol , Evangelos A. Theodorou

Like visual processing, language processing is susceptible to illusions in which people systematically misperceive stimuli. In one such case--the comparative illusion (CI), e.g., More students have been to Russia than I have--comprehenders…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Yuhan Zhang , Erxiao Wang , Cory Shain

Humans' distinctive role in the world can largely be attributed to our capacity for iterated learning, a process by which knowledge is expanded and refined over generations. A range of theories seek to explain why humans are so adept at…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ben Prystawski , Dilip Arumugam , Noah D. Goodman

We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities: potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting cyber incidents.…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-07-04 M. S. Jalali

We study a social learning model in which agents iteratively update their beliefs about the true state of the world using private signals and the beliefs of other agents in a non-Bayesian manner. Some agents are stubborn, meaning they…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Daniel Vial , Vijay Subramanian

Sparse modeling for signal processing and machine learning has been at the focus of scientific research for over two decades. Among others, supervised sparsity-aware learning comprises two major paths paved by: a) discriminative methods and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-23 Lei Cheng , Feng Yin , Sergios Theodoridis , Sotirios Chatzis , Tsung-Hui Chang

Not only correctness but also self-confidence play an important role in improving the quality of knowledge. Undesirable situations such as confident incorrect and unconfident correct knowledge prevent learners from revising their knowledge…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Shoya Ishimaru , Takanori Maruichi , Andreas Dengel , Koichi Kise

Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Yayi Zou , Xiaoqi Lu

We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-04 Adam Dominiak , Matthew Kovach , Gerelt Tserenjigmid

We study the problem of an agent continuously faced with the decision of placing or not placing trust in an institution. The agent makes use of Bayesian learning in order to estimate the institution's true trustworthiness and makes the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-06 Benedikt V. Meylahn , Arnoud V. den Boer , Michel Mandjes

Prior beliefs are central to Bayesian accounts of cognition, but many of these accounts do not directly measure priors. More specifically, initial states of belief heavily influence how new information is assumed to be utilized when…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-11 Peter A. V. DiBerardino , Alexandre L. S. Filipowicz , James Danckert , Britt Anderson