English
Related papers

Related papers: Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bay…

200 papers

Use-dependent bias is a phenomenon in human sensorimotor behavior whereby movements become biased towards previously repeated actions. Despite being well-documented, the reason why this phenomenon occurs is not yet clearly understood. Here,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-19 Hokin Deng , Adrian Haith

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-14 Sebastian Farquhar

We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-06-24 Ryosuke Nishi , Naoki Masuda

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-26 James Z. Hare , Cesar A. Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Class imbalance poses a significant challenge in classification tasks, where traditional approaches often lead to biased models and unreliable predictions. Undersampling and oversampling techniques have been commonly employed to address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Matt Clifford , Jonathan Erskine , Alexander Hepburn , Raúl Santos-Rodríguez , Dario Garcia-Garcia

L\'evy walks are found in the migratory behaviour patterns of various organisms, and the reason for this phenomenon has been much discussed. We use simulations to demonstrate that learning causes the changes in confidence level during…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework for distributed inference of a group of agents interacting over a social network by sequentially communicating and updating beliefs about the unknown state of the world through…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-25 James Z. Hare , Cesar Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

We test how individuals with incorrect beliefs about their ability learn about an external parameter (`fundamental') when they cannot separately identify the effects of their ability, actions, and the parameter on their output. Heidhues et…

General Economics · Economics 2021-07-19 Kieran Marray , Nikhil Krishna , Jarel Tang

Catastrophic forgetting has been the leading issue in the domain of lifelong learning in artificial systems. Current artificial systems are reasonably good at learning domains they have seen before; however, as soon as they encounter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Ram Zaveri

Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Daniel Jarne Ornia , Joel Dyer , Nicholas Bishop , Anisoara Calinescu , Michael Wooldridge

Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-19 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal

State-of-the-art deep-learning systems use decision rules that are challenging for humans to model. Explainable AI (XAI) attempts to improve human understanding but rarely accounts for how people typically reason about unfamiliar agents. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-27 Scott Cheng-Hsin Yang , Wai Keen Vong , Ravi B. Sojitra , Tomas Folke , Patrick Shafto

Across many domains of interaction, both natural and artificial, individuals use past experience to shape future behaviors. The results of such learning processes depend on what individuals wish to maximize. A natural objective is one's own…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-02 Alex McAvoy , Julian Kates-Harbeck , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Christian Hilbe

We study a sequential social learning model in which there is uncertainty about the informativeness of a common signal-generating process. Rational agents arrive in order and make decisions based on the past actions of others and their…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-01 Wanying Huang

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Jeong Eun Lee , Sitong Liu , Geoff K. Nicholls

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active…

Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Bohan Wu , Sebastian Salazar , Donald P. Green , David M. Blei

Uses of artificial intelligence (AI), especially those powered by machine learning approaches, are growing in sectors and societies around the world. How will AI adoption proceed, especially in the international security realm? Research on…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Michael C. Horowitz , Lauren Kahn