Related papers: Likelihood Ratio Gradient Estimation for Steady-St…

We study discounted random walks in directed graphs. In each step, the walk either terminates with a constant probability $\alpha$, or proceeds to a random out-neighbor. Our goal is to estimate the probability $\pi(s, t)$ that a discounted…

We study the $L_1$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator/estimation (MLE) problem for discrete Markov random fields (MRFs), where efficient and scalable learning requires both sparse regularization and approximate inference. To address…

Let $G$ be a random graph on the vertex set $\{1,2,..., n\}$ such that edges in $G$ are determined by independent random indicator variables, while the probability $p_{ij}$ for $\{i,j\}$ being an edge in $G$ is not assumed to be equal.…

We study the distribution P(\omega) of the random variable \omega = x_1/(x_1 + x_2), where x_1 and x_2 are the wealths of two individuals selected at random from the same tempered Paretian ensemble characterized by the distribution \Psi(x)…

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

We consider a dynamic version of the stochastic block model, in which the nodes are partitioned into latent classes and the connection between two nodes is drawn from a Bernoulli distribution depending on the classes of these two nodes. The…

We discuss several limiting degree distributions for a class of random threshold graphs in the many node regime. This analysis is carried out under a weak assumption on the distribution of the underlying fitness variable. This assumption,…

Cross-sectional observations from a dynamical system can be modeled via steady-state distributions of Markov processes. The major challenge is then to determine whether the process parameters can be identified and estimated from the…

We prove a novel result wherein the density function of the gradients---corresponding to density function of the derivatives in one dimension---of a thrice differentiable function S (obtained via a random variable transformation of a…

Reinforcement learning methods for robotics are increasingly successful due to the constant development of better policy gradient techniques. A precise (low variance) and accurate (low bias) gradient estimator is crucial to face…

Markov chains arising from random iteration of functions $S_{\theta}:X\to X$, $\theta \in \Theta$, where $X$ is a Polish space and $\Theta$ is arbitrary set of indices are considerd. At $x\in X$, $\theta$ is sampled from distribution…

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

We address the problem of Lyapunov function construction for a class of continuous-time Markov chains with affine transition rates, typically encountered in stochastic chemical kinetics. Following an optimization approach, we take advantage…

Via a Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula from [KPP23], we derive uniform gradient estimates for transition semigroups associated with stochastic differential equations driven by a large class of cylindrical L\'{e}vy processes which includes the…

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by…

We consider a latent space model for random graphs where a node $i$ is associated to a random latent point $X_i$ on the Euclidean unit ball. The probability that an edge exists between two nodes is determined by a ``link'' function, which…

Gradient information on the sampling distribution can be used to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators via Stein's method. An important application is that of estimating an expectation of a test function along the sample path of a…

We consider a problem of parameter estimation for the state space model described by linear stochastic differential equations. We assume that an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drives another observable process by the linear…

We revisit the problem of estimating the parameters of a partially observed diffusion process, consisting of a hidden state process and an observed process, with a continuous time parameter. The estimation is to be done online, i.e. the…

In this work, we study early-warning signs for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), where the linearization around a steady state has continuous spectrum. The studied warning sign takes the form of qualitative changes in the…