Related papers: Automated versus do-it-yourself methods for causal…

More capable language models increasingly saturate existing task benchmarks, in some cases outperforming humans. This has left little headroom with which to measure further progress. Adversarial dataset creation has been proposed as a…

The inaccessibility of controlled randomized trials due to inherent constraints in many fields of science has been a fundamental issue in causal inference. In this paper, we focus on distinguishing the cause from effect in the bivariate…

Causal discovery can be a powerful tool for investigating causality when a system can be observed but is inaccessible to experiments in practice. Despite this, it is rarely used in any scientific or medical fields. One of the major hurdles…

Causal discovery remains a central challenge in machine learning, yet existing methods face a fundamental gap: algorithms like GES and GraN-DAG achieve strong empirical performance but lack finite-sample guarantees, while theoretically…

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural…

A new and rapidly growing econometric literature is making advances in the problem of using machine learning methods for causal inference questions. Yet, the empirical economics literature has not started to fully exploit the strengths of…

Randomised field experiments, such as A/B testing, have long been the gold standard for evaluating software changes. In the automotive domain, running randomised field experiments is not always desired, possible, or even ethical. In the…

Causality is essential for understanding complex systems, such as the economy, the brain, and the climate. Constructing causal graphs often relies on either data-driven or expert-driven approaches, both fraught with challenges. The former…

Complex systems have interested researchers across a broad range of fields for many years and as computing has become more accesible and feasible, it is now possible to simulate aspects of these systems. A major point of research is how…

Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web…

Methods for inferring average causal effects have traditionally relied on two key assumptions: (i) the intervention received by one unit cannot causally influence the outcome of another; and (ii) units can be organized into non-overlapping…

Causal inference is a central goal across many scientific disciplines. Over the past several decades, three major frameworks have emerged to formalize causal questions and guide their analysis: the potential outcomes framework, structural…

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents'…

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is…

Provenance, or information about the sources, derivation, custody or history of data, has been studied recently in a number of contexts, including databases, scientific workflows and the Semantic Web. Many provenance mechanisms have been…

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be…

We develop a mathematical and interpretative foundation for the enterprise of decision-theoretic statistical causality (DT), which is a straightforward way of representing and addressing causal questions. DT reframes causal inference as…

Inferring causal directions on discrete and categorical data is an important yet challenging problem. Even though the additive noise models (ANMs) approach can be adapted to the discrete data, the functional structure assumptions make it…

We address the problem of inferring the causal direction between two variables by comparing the least-squares errors of the predictions in both possible directions. Under the assumption of an independence between the function relating cause…

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…